Tom Shugart
Defense analyst, former submariner, pilot. @cnasdc Adjunct Senior Fellow. Founder, Archer Strategic Consulting. Opinions my own. RT=/=endorsement.
عرض في 𝕏سلاسل التغريدات
@AndrewSErickson and Gabriel Collins have produced here a highly granular and sensible to-do list that Taiwanese and U.S. defense decision-makers would be wise to read carefully...
I have to say that of what we know thus far about the apparent missile strike on the Russian missile cruiser, I’ve seen nothing that changes by one iota my assessment of the operat...
Some fresh imagery (3/2022) from the new PLAN nuclear submarine shipyard at Huludao. It looks like they're just about done building the last big building (at bottom). This is a bi...
Fresh @googleearth imagery (1/22) from the XAC factory. Looks like they've been busy bees the last few months! By my count, 24 Y-20 transports (including 4 Y-20U tanker variants)),...
On current trendlines, with word of high Russian casualties & Ukrainian counterattacks, may be time to start thinking about what happens if/when Russian forces are pushed, in some...
@JBWolfsthal Since you asked...😉 For the most part, it's not the same people. Other than perhaps in the nuclear realm, I know few folks who have real expertise looking the mil bala...
This is, in general a solid article by Jeffrey Hornung covering some initial lessons for the defense of Taiwan from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://t.co/s1lPvqHAD6
This is, of course, anti-nuclear fear-mongering and misinformation, bordering on disinformation. https://t.co/c5J3uw98NU
I'd say find new experts. Most of the ones that I follow - defense analysts who pay attention to capabilities and reality on the ground, rather than divining intentions and applyin...
@shashj Oh I think the Russian pretexts are coming together for an all-out invasion - if you think about the operational implications: - Russia recognizes DNR/LNR - Russia provides...
Riffing on @cgberube's valuable analysis below, which showed the relative youth of the PLA Navy's surface combatants compared to those of the USN, I thought it might be interesting...
This checks with what I know about Russian doctrine, which in many ways rhymes with the PLA's. There may be a significant delay between the start of a Russian campaign - with lots...