Who is Jolani — and can he be trusted? 🧵
-Thread based on my fieldwork, interviews, & primary source documents I have collected working on #HTS for many years, as well as insights from other experts who have spent time on-the-ground in the region
- Both #Jolani and #HTS are designated terrorist entities by the #UN #EU #US and others, and used to be directly part of both #ISIS and #AlQaeda
- The #UK and others are now examining de-listing but face major questions. HTS and Jolani have committed human rights abuses in the past & many Syrian minorities and those in the international community are rightly worried about whether HTS will be more pragmatic in the long-term
-While HTS have changed some policies in the past -before the offensive began - no one can say what they will do in the future once they feel more secure
#Syria
-Thread based on my fieldwork, interviews, & primary source documents I have collected working on #HTS for many years, as well as insights from other experts who have spent time on-the-ground in the region
- Both #Jolani and #HTS are designated terrorist entities by the #UN #EU #US and others, and used to be directly part of both #ISIS and #AlQaeda
- The #UK and others are now examining de-listing but face major questions. HTS and Jolani have committed human rights abuses in the past & many Syrian minorities and those in the international community are rightly worried about whether HTS will be more pragmatic in the long-term
-While HTS have changed some policies in the past -before the offensive began - no one can say what they will do in the future once they feel more secure
#Syria
Frankly, Jolani has deep roots in the global jihadist movement and has the perfect CV of a veteran jihadist, despite what he may have done or said the past few years (more on that below)
- Jolani began as a foreign terrorist fighter and traveled to #Iraq in 2003 to join Al Qaeda
- He fought with Al Qaeda for two years before being imprisoned by the #US in Camp Bucca.
- He later served as an #ISIS comammander in #Nineveh and #Mosul before being dispatched personally by ISIS' leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi to set up an #ISIS affiliate in #Syria
- Jolani began as a foreign terrorist fighter and traveled to #Iraq in 2003 to join Al Qaeda
- He fought with Al Qaeda for two years before being imprisoned by the #US in Camp Bucca.
- He later served as an #ISIS comammander in #Nineveh and #Mosul before being dispatched personally by ISIS' leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi to set up an #ISIS affiliate in #Syria
-During #Jolani's time in Camp Bucca he met many of the leaders who went on to play leading roles in #ISIS
- #Jolani has been a prominently involved in global jihadist movement over the past two decades and that cannot be overlooked. He is now as influential as #Zarqawi or Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi but unlike these jihadist leaders he has shown a desire to engage in politics
- #Jolani has been a prominently involved in global jihadist movement over the past two decades and that cannot be overlooked. He is now as influential as #Zarqawi or Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi but unlike these jihadist leaders he has shown a desire to engage in politics
Jolani established the #Nusra Front as an #ISIS affiliate in #Syria at the start of the Syrian Civil War, exploiting the chaos of the time to pursue his political agenda.
-Former #Nusra and #HTS members I have interviewed claimed that they were supporting the armed opposition but they were also pursuing their own Salafi-Jihadist ideological agenda which most Syrians do not support
-Former #Nusra and #HTS members I have interviewed claimed that they were supporting the armed opposition but they were also pursuing their own Salafi-Jihadist ideological agenda which most Syrians do not support
After #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi tried to unilaterally monopolize control over #Nusra, Jolani rejected this and split from #ISIS in 2013
But this split from #ISIS was less about rejecting the Salafi-Jihadist ideology and more about a personal disagreement over leadership.
The evidence? Jolani prompted aligned himself and his group with ISIS' rival (#AlQaeda) after leaving ISIS in order to keep hardliners in his group from leaving
But this split from #ISIS was less about rejecting the Salafi-Jihadist ideology and more about a personal disagreement over leadership.
The evidence? Jolani prompted aligned himself and his group with ISIS' rival (#AlQaeda) after leaving ISIS in order to keep hardliners in his group from leaving
#Jolani eventually went on to break his pledge of bay'ah (allegiance) to Al Qaeda's leader #Zawahiri in July 2016 as he sought to rebrand and expand the coaltion of groups his organization could fight alongside
But the #US, #UK, #EU, #UN obviously did not trust this this switch and #Jolani remains a specially designated global terrorist (SDGT)
But the #US, #UK, #EU, #UN obviously did not trust this this switch and #Jolani remains a specially designated global terrorist (SDGT)
Despite being a designated terrorist entity, over the past several years #Jolani and #HTS have taken some partial steps to be more pragmatic, focus on local objectives, and build state-like institutons to provide services to civilians in their enclave around #Idlib
After establishing #HTS in 2017, and the creation of the Syrian Salvation Government in #Idlib, Jolani has pursued this track to varying degrees but many Syrians and parts of the international community remain skeptical of what he may do in the future
After establishing #HTS in 2017, and the creation of the Syrian Salvation Government in #Idlib, Jolani has pursued this track to varying degrees but many Syrians and parts of the international community remain skeptical of what he may do in the future
While his move towards partial pragmatism didnt just start during the HTS-led offensive to topple #Assad, his group has a long history of human rights abuses in #Idlib where #HTS has arrested dissidents and systematically consolidated control over its rivals.
Now that HTS and its allies are in control of much of #Syria (though not all), there are genuine fears about how it will treat minorities, dissidents, and women
Now that HTS and its allies are in control of much of #Syria (though not all), there are genuine fears about how it will treat minorities, dissidents, and women
HTS still has many hardliners and foreign fighters (from Central Asia, Chechnya, France, and elsewhere) in its ranks — especially in the Red Brigades (#HTS Special Forces Units)
While HTS has arrested #ISIS and Al Qaeda/Hurras al Din cells in #Idlib that could have threatened its politcal project, it also cooperates closely with the TIP and other designated groups which do not challenge it
While HTS has arrested #ISIS and Al Qaeda/Hurras al Din cells in #Idlib that could have threatened its politcal project, it also cooperates closely with the TIP and other designated groups which do not challenge it
#Syria is a large & very diverse country. Even if #HTS does not plan attacks abroad it is not strong enough to control all of Syria and #ISIS will seek to
-There is significant risk that #ISIS will exploit power vacuums in the east, in #DeirEzZor and the Syrian Badiya to scale up attacks or prison breaks in the confusion that follows the collapse of #Assad.
-The #US and Global Coalition has struck many #ISIS camps but with escalating #SDF and #SNA fighting there is risk that partner forces will be over-stretcthed and distrated
-There is significant risk that #ISIS will exploit power vacuums in the east, in #DeirEzZor and the Syrian Badiya to scale up attacks or prison breaks in the confusion that follows the collapse of #Assad.
-The #US and Global Coalition has struck many #ISIS camps but with escalating #SDF and #SNA fighting there is risk that partner forces will be over-stretcthed and distrated
So, can #Jolani be trusted?
Actions will matter a lot more than words
While #HTS began to move in a more pragmatic and locally focussed direction several years before the offensive, it remains to be seen what they do in the future,and there are already worrying signs for many of #Syria's minority communities
What will HTS do when they feel more secure and safe as they consolidate power and become established in #Damascus? No one can say for sure yet
The international community should watch carefully and not make any moves until a proven track record has been established
Actions will matter a lot more than words
While #HTS began to move in a more pragmatic and locally focussed direction several years before the offensive, it remains to be seen what they do in the future,and there are already worrying signs for many of #Syria's minority communities
What will HTS do when they feel more secure and safe as they consolidate power and become established in #Damascus? No one can say for sure yet
The international community should watch carefully and not make any moves until a proven track record has been established
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