🧵Thread about #Syria, #GeorgiaProtests, the #Ukraine, #Russia, #Israel, #Lebanon, #Gaza and the resumed possibility of another war between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan as a side affect, as Baku's war rhetoric continues at an all-time high, COP29 finished and Washington paralysed... x.com
With Biden almost out of the White House, there are indications that his administration is seeking to aggravate the situation in the Ukraine (i.e. long-range strikes into Russian territory by US, FR and UK missiles) before Trump, in favour of ending the conflict, assumes office.
Moscow responded to the ATACAMS attacks between 20-22 November with its medium-range ballistic "Oreshnik" missile, presumed capable of carrying nuclear warheads. First ever use of such a ballistic missile in history. x.com
Russian President Putin suggested the further production and use of the "Oreshnik" as perceived threats to their national security increase, he additionally boasted that the West has no means to intercept their new missile, that can also reach Europe. x.com
Without any means to counter Russian advances and deter Moscow against using its Oreshnik missile, we believe the US is seeking to strain Russian resources through proxies such as the anti-govt protests in Georgia and possibly events in Syria, aimed to topple the pro-Russian govt x.com
Western-backed protests in Georgia erupted on 28 October of this year after a pro-Russian party won the elections (similar to events in 2004 and 2013 in the Ukraine, 2018 protests in Armenia, 2020 protests in Belarus), serious clashes between them and police forces. x.com
In Syria, Turkish-backed (often Western supported as well) Hayat Tahrir al Sham, formerly the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra, unexpectedly resumed its military campaign against Syrian govt forces, gaining control of Aleppo and at least 40 other towns and villages, with a crisis...
...ensuing amid the government as to how to handle the situation. Russia has reportedly deployed aircraft to target the insurgent group. With Moscow's war effort tied down in the Ukraine, it may not be able to provide necessary support to Syria.
Source: news.sky.com
Source: news.sky.com
Turkey, also taking advantage of the situation, is more likely than not involved in the new surprise offensive through proxies, as Hezbollah is weakened, Russia busy in the Ukraine and Iran apparently unable to provide sufficient support.
Source: english.alarabiya.net
Source: english.alarabiya.net
The insurgents' advance coincides with repeated Israeli statements to deal a blow to Assad, for his support to Hezbollah. The surprise offensive in Syria started the same day as Israel's ceasefire in Lebanon. Israeli involvement also possible...
Source: timesofisrael.com
Source: timesofisrael.com
Sure there are a lot of local alliances and interests in Syria and Georgia, but on a larger geopolitical scale, both areas have a strategic and historical importance for Moscow, and are therefore pressure points to use against it for anyone that seeks to do so.
What the events in Syria and Georgia most likely seek to do is put strain on Russia's military, diplomatic and overall political capacity in a bid to increase damage, highly-likely tied to a possible ceasefire in Ukraine in the up coming months.
Amid all of this, with European, Israeli, Turkish, Russian and what remains of the US until the new administration, and the world's mainstream media attention all concentrated on the Ukraine, Israel, Gaza and now Syria (not even Georgia much), another war may silently take place
Emboldened by COP29, its strategic alliance with Russia signed in Feb. 2022, oil and gas supply to Turkey, Israel and EU, enormous GDP and ever increasing military expenditures now 3x Armenia's, the one-man government of Aliyev with no internal or external checks or balances... x.com
and considering Armenia's military, in shambles since the 2020 defeat and increasingly neglected by the current government, with frequent reshuffling of top military positions, no real defence against Azeri high-tech UAVs, commonly used in NK and other clashes in Armenia, in...
addition to its weakened diplomatic power, seeking to cut ties with Russia, in favour of the US and EU, providing support to the Ukraine (something that probably cost it NK, with Moscow acquiescing Baku's capture), with still no real security guarantees from any major player...
Armenia continues at its most vulnerable position since its 1991 independence from the USSR, with no real possibility of physically halting, let alone deterring an Azeri advance as seen during the latter's numerous incursions into Armenia since the 2020 NK war.
During times like this, where numerous factors such as world media attention and that of major world powers are shifted elsewhere, the likelihood of Azerbaijan launching more, possibly larger in scale incursions for land grabs inside Armenia increase. x.com
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