Interest rates are actually UP since the Fed cut rates last week.
In fact, some products have seen interest rise 20+ bps over the last week, even as the Fed cut rates by 50 bps.
How's this possible?
Here's how we knew the move was coming and capitalized on it.
(a thread)
In fact, some products have seen interest rise 20+ bps over the last week, even as the Fed cut rates by 50 bps.
How's this possible?
Here's how we knew the move was coming and capitalized on it.
(a thread)
The 10-year note yield, $TNX, has risen from 3.60% to 3.80% in just 6 days.
Since the Fed announced a rate cut, bond prices have gotten crushed.
This comes even as the Fed announced a LARGER than expected 50 bps rate cut.
But why?
Since the Fed announced a rate cut, bond prices have gotten crushed.
This comes even as the Fed announced a LARGER than expected 50 bps rate cut.
But why?
Leading into the September 18th Fed decision, the market was fixated on what the Fed would do.
Trading was entirely about if the Fed would cut 25 or 50 basis points.
In reality, we knew it wouldn't matter for price action.
That's exactly what we told our premium members.
Trading was entirely about if the Fed would cut 25 or 50 basis points.
In reality, we knew it wouldn't matter for price action.
That's exactly what we told our premium members.
Here was the headline of our bond market analysis on September 16th for our premium members.
We called for a "sell the news" event in bonds after the decision.
To receive our alerts and reports in advance, see thekobeissiletter.com
Here's how we knew it would happen.
We called for a "sell the news" event in bonds after the decision.
To receive our alerts and reports in advance, see thekobeissiletter.com
Here's how we knew it would happen.
In just about every Fed meeting this year, the Fed's decision has been priced-in DAYS before it happens.
As seen below, the 10-year note yield fell over 30 basis points just days prior to the decision.
This was a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news" event for bonds.
As seen below, the 10-year note yield fell over 30 basis points just days prior to the decision.
This was a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news" event for bonds.
Even looking ahead to the November 7th meeting, bond markets are ALREADY pricing-in a 100% chance of a cut.
In fact, the exact same debate is happening now as we saw before.
Will the Fed cut by 25 or 50 basis points?
We will be trading this in the coming weeks.
In fact, the exact same debate is happening now as we saw before.
Will the Fed cut by 25 or 50 basis points?
We will be trading this in the coming weeks.
1 hour before the Fed meeting, we posted this trade alert for our premium members.
We called for a drop below $100.00 to open for $96.50 and reaffirmed our "sell the news" view.
That's exactly what happened.
To join this feed, see thekobeissiletter.com
We called for a drop below $100.00 to open for $96.50 and reaffirmed our "sell the news" view.
That's exactly what happened.
To join this feed, see thekobeissiletter.com
Looking ahead, we have the next Fed meeting and the 2024 Presidential Election in the same week.
Historically speaking, volatility rises 25% from July-November in an election year.
Combine this with another big Fed decision and we have tons of volatility on the way.
Historically speaking, volatility rises 25% from July-November in an election year.
Combine this with another big Fed decision and we have tons of volatility on the way.
We always say it: volatility is opportunity for investors and traders.
Getting ahead of the next big move will be crucial into year-end.
Interested in receiving our analysis and trade alerts?
Subscribe now for instant access at the link below:
thekobeissiletter.com
Getting ahead of the next big move will be crucial into year-end.
Interested in receiving our analysis and trade alerts?
Subscribe now for instant access at the link below:
thekobeissiletter.com
جاري تحميل الاقتراحات...