Marko Bjegovic
Marko Bjegovic

@MBjegovic

6 تغريدة 1 قراءة Sep 19, 2024
The #Fed cuts rates by 50 bps while the mkt priced in roughly 65:35 chance for a 50 bps cut
Details to follow...
#Fed statement:
"The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance."
"The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals."
SEP show
GDP little changed at 2.0% for all yrs
UR at 4.4% for 2024 and 2025, whole 4.3% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2007
Headline #PCE 2.3% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 2027
Core PCE 2.6% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 2027
Expected 4 cuts in 2024, another 4 cuts in 2025, 5 cuts in 2026 and then hold in 2027 at LT FFR of 2.9%
Governor Bowman dissented in favor of 25 bps, first Fed governor dissent since 2005.
Can't say I'm surprised...
I think the #Fed officials actually know they're late:
x.com
The #Fed cuts by 50 bps and the mkt closes negative.
#SPX -0.29%
#NASDAQ -0.31%
(be careful what you wish for)

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