Yesterday, Israel struck the Al Dabaa airport near Al Qusayr in Syria, reportedly killing a key Hizbullah commander involved in the Iranian drone program. Why did Israel choose this target? Why now? And how is it connected to the imminent Iranian attack? 🧵1/11
In April, Israel’s “Arrow” system intercepted over 100 Iranian ballistic missiles in space. On the same night, Israel and five allies chased down hundreds of small Iranian suicide drones over Jordan and Iraq. But why did Israel need help shooting down these simple drones?🧵2/11
To the casual observer, Iranian suicide drones seem like small potatoes for Israel’s defense. If Israel’s “Arrow” and “David Sling” can shoot down missiles traveling over 3600 mph, why can’t they stop Iranian drones flying at the speed of a Honda Civic? 🧵3/11
The answer boils down to the fundamentals of war and physics. Iran knows Israel’s Achilles heel isn't in its technology or missile capacity. Israel's defense suffers from a more fundamental flaw: geography. 🧵4/11
Israel is geographically lower than both Jordan and Lebanon. As the sun rises, the Jordanian Moab mountains cast a shadow over Israel’s Dead Sea, the lowest point on Earth’s surface. Even Israel’s Judean hills are on average 100 meters lower than the highlands of Jordan.🧵5/11
The same is true for Israel’s northern border, Most of Israel is downhill from Lebanon’s mountains, behind which Hizballah terrorists launch Iranian “Shahed” drones. No matter where Israel positions its radars, Large parts of Lebanon and Jordan will still be out of sight. 🧵6/11
Conversely, a missile from Lebanon is shot high into the sky with a ballistic trajectory. Even from the low ground, Israel can identify and intercept most of these missiles. 🧵7/11
But Iran’s drones fly low and slow, blending into the mountains. By the time they are detected by the Iron Dome, it is often too late🧵8/11
Israel needs to intercept drones long before they reach its border, only a dozen miles away from its capital. Jordan cooperates with Israel, sending radar-equipped fighter jets to search for these drones near Iraq. The Iron Dome becomes the last line of defense,🧵9/11
This illustrates how even the most advanced defense systems need high ground and strategic depth to function. Israel can conquer the skies with “Arrow” missiles, but if it doesn't conquer the mountains, low-tech drones can turn life near the border into a nightmare.🧵10/11
Israel is preemptively striking key figures and technology to delay and weaken the imminent Iranian attack, leveraging its Air Force to overcome its geographical constraints. Time will tell if this will suffice 🧵 11/11
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