It made sense to stay 🐂 on #Bitcoin as long as the trend & range were holding & equities were going up but now it has lost its MS after 130 days of 🦀 PA & we need to adapt
I'll break down all the facts you need for all scenarios in understandable language below 👇
1/18 🧵
I'll break down all the facts you need for all scenarios in understandable language below 👇
1/18 🧵
When it comes to bullish/bearish posts it always comes down to TimeFrames. You can have a trader that is bullish on H1 screaming at a bearish trader on D1 while the Weekly trader is bullish again
It makes no sense & we need to analyze each one differently to understand the TF 👇
It makes no sense & we need to analyze each one differently to understand the TF 👇
The macro view, which is like a Monthly to somewhat Weekly, remains bullish, while Weekly down to Daily is now bearish
The M1/W1 TF remains bullish as long as the 39K low is holding but locally we can be bear-bleeding for some time as the 130 days long #BTC range was lost
The M1/W1 TF remains bullish as long as the 39K low is holding but locally we can be bear-bleeding for some time as the 130 days long #BTC range was lost
When you get this kind of a breakdown after such a long range it doesn't usually happen to be "yet another deviation" but rather a valid breakdown, no matter how oversold the market locally can be
A bounce from all the liquidations is likely but a reclaim of MS is unlikely
A bounce from all the liquidations is likely but a reclaim of MS is unlikely
Here is a similar scenario which has happened in 2019
The price rallied from the bottoming range quickly higher, then did a big range at the top & broke down
What followed was a temporary weakness before a strong bull market. But that one came later, not immediately
5/18
The price rallied from the bottoming range quickly higher, then did a big range at the top & broke down
What followed was a temporary weakness before a strong bull market. But that one came later, not immediately
5/18
The fact that the current range happened higher & for longer than the 2019 one gives the breakdown even more validity
The fact that all - horizontals, range & EMAs were lost as a confluence gives it even more validity
The fact that all - horizontals, range & EMAs were lost as a confluence gives it even more validity
Lots of 🐻 that screamed for HTF lower got merely lucky with the current drop just like they got lucky during the FTX drop back in 22, which was an unexpected event to the market, otherwise, it would have bottomed in October like all other macro assets had
Lots of 🐻 claiming victory now kept calling for a retest of 31K since we broke out from that range back then
The same thing goes for the 🐂 to be fair just vice versa at different levels
It is important to see the facts & adapt accordingly when the trend changes
The same thing goes for the 🐂 to be fair just vice versa at different levels
It is important to see the facts & adapt accordingly when the trend changes
It didn't make sense to be bearish locally until last week, just like it doesn't make sense to remain bullish for the next period from here
Not one week earlier, not one week later
The TF for bearishness IMO is however limited TA wise + US presidential election timewise
10/18
Not one week earlier, not one week later
The TF for bearishness IMO is however limited TA wise + US presidential election timewise
10/18
Here is my current plan
The Daily directional bias is now bearish. Accept the fact. And we remain bearish until or unless a few scenarios happen:
1) By some luck we manage to reclaim the previous range & break MS at 64K. But given what we discussed previously, the least likely
The Daily directional bias is now bearish. Accept the fact. And we remain bearish until or unless a few scenarios happen:
1) By some luck we manage to reclaim the previous range & break MS at 64K. But given what we discussed previously, the least likely
By the way, I have launched & I write my own Newsletter (nobody writes it for me, like for many others) where threads like this & longer are shared every single week in the biggest detail
People are loving it a lot & you might as well. See more below 👇
People are loving it a lot & you might as well. See more below 👇
2) We form a range from 53K & break MS, in that case a move to its prior range would be possible & trend reversal from there
Although I doubt it happens until 53K is tested & MS is broken
Although I doubt it happens until 53K is tested & MS is broken
3) Bear trend is established & we keep on making LLs & LHs on the Daily until we hit the Macro support at ~48-43K from which we turn around and continue our MACRO BULLISH TREND
In any case, I do not think the bear case has a much longer timeframe than the US presidential election or unless we lose the Macrostructure down below 39K
It is important to keep on reminding that #BTC remains to be a macro bullish asset, so be ready to flip bias quickly
15/18
It is important to keep on reminding that #BTC remains to be a macro bullish asset, so be ready to flip bias quickly
15/18
You can also decide to just be hopeful and pray that we V-shape recover from here.
Lots of people cater to this trading behavior. It does sometimes work but from my statistical data set, it is very rare 🙃
Lots of people cater to this trading behavior. It does sometimes work but from my statistical data set, it is very rare 🙃
As always it is important to have invalidation levels & name them for yourself & possibly others
Accepting the trend has changed while you don't want that is one of the hardest things to do in this game. Been there done that
Accepting the trend has changed while you don't want that is one of the hardest things to do in this game. Been there done that
You often tend to tell yourself if the price does this I will do that, then it does it but you don't want to accept that and move your levels
At any given time there is some argument fitting your previous bias so you'll always find something
It's all about probabilities & MS
At any given time there is some argument fitting your previous bias so you'll always find something
It's all about probabilities & MS
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I wrote it for free on a Sunday & in my free time to give all of you guys who need it a clean guideline & data set
Pressing those two buttons costs nothing & is very quick
Thanks a lot 🙌
I wrote it for free on a Sunday & in my free time to give all of you guys who need it a clean guideline & data set
Pressing those two buttons costs nothing & is very quick
Thanks a lot 🙌
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