Thomas des Garets Geddes
Thomas des Garets Geddes

@thomasdggeddes

12 تغريدة May 06, 2024
Vice president of 🇨🇳 MSS-affiliated think tank CICIR and director of its Institute of European Studies, Zhang Jian (张健), wrote in 2022 about the "Frenchification of the EU" and its implications for #China.
His views in eight key points:
[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com
1⃣ Until the outbreak of the #UkraineRussiaWar, the EU was undergoing a process of “Frenchification”, with more and more French ideas being translated into EU policies.
2⃣ With the UK out of the EU, distrust of the USA rising and the EU’s leadership staffed with #Macron allies, #France’s sway over the European Union increased substantially.
3⃣ If the #EU has become more “integrated”, “geopolitical”, “protectionist” and “autonomous” in recent years, it is largely due to French efforts.
4⃣ But #France’s influence over the EU should not be overstated. Major disagreements with #Germany exist, pushback by the Nordic and CEE countries is strong and Washington is doing what it can to stymie Paris’s proposals.
5⃣ An EU modelled more closely after France's vision would prevent it from becoming a vassal of the #USA and would allow it to have a relatively independent and cooperative approach towards #China.
6⃣ Moreover, the mere prospect of closer EU-China cooperation, would help keep America’s hegemonic behaviour in check.
7⃣ European strategic autonomy is largely about increasing the EU’s independence from the US.
8⃣ That being said, an EU with a more geopolitical and protectionist mindset is sure to exacerbate the competitive aspects of its relationship with China, be they economic or political.
📍A lot has changed since Zhang wrote relatively enthusiastically about the EU's "Frenchification" just over two years ago. He recently stated that, “After the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, the ‘Europhiles’ [led by France] have arguably lost ->
-> their power, while the ‘Atlanticists’ have gained the upper hand. This change is not short-term, but structural and long-term, and will be difficult to change in the foreseeable future.” Still, the reasons why Beijing continues to value its relationship ->
-> with Paris, in spite of the growing difficulties, remain largely the same. Zhang’s piece is a useful reminder of what these reasons are and may provide some clues as to why Beijing has (so far) refrained from reacting too strongly to some of Paris’s recent "affronts".
📣 #Sinification is a newsletter that curates, analyses and translates key articles and speeches by China's establishment intellectuals, with a particular focus on international relations. To subscribe for free:
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