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Altseason seems to be starting!
Only ~15% of altcoins will bring 10-100x in this hyper growth.
Asset selection matters more than ever. One slip-up, and you're out.
- How to position yourself
- Profit-taking timing
- 6 Altcoins that look ready to go
🧵⬇️

Altseason is approaching, and we might even be at its onset considering the strength shown by certain altcoins.
➜ Confirmation of the bull trend in this case will be a consolidation above $700B on #TOTAL3
✓ Given sentiment that most people do not believe in growth, it is very likely that we can assume that altcoins are preparing for a super growth phase, as the market is probably already emptying out.

But, upon exploring overall sentiment, it appears that some people may still be holding onto their bags.
While this may hold some truth, you might then question: "Alex, you always mention that the market shouldn't have extra weight." And in this case, you would be correct... BUT

There are three types of capitulation:
➜ Capitulation by price: people dump bags when everything goes down
➜ Capitulation by time: people dump bags without waiting for growth
➜ Capitulation by growth: people dump bags thinking there will be a drop

◢ Many people are now willing to capitulate on growth because they are afraid of another drop.
In such a case, the market becomes empty very quickly and continues to rise.
Growth creates FOMO which makes people buy even higher and this triggers even stronger growth.
I believe this is the phase we are in:
➜ Any drop will generate fear
➜ Any rise will cause fear of a drop
Thus the market will clear the paperhands and move into the supercycle phase.
It's just a psychological example ⇩

◢ Factor #1
Although the bullish attitude prevails, not all altcoins will demonstrate strength in this cycle.
The altcoin market has significantly expanded over the past 4 years and continues to grow daily.
➜ Thus, selecting projects for the alteason should be precise.
➜ Avoid purchasing random coins as many may struggle to achieve more than a 50-100% growth.

◢ Factor #2
Another crucial point is to invest the majority of capital in coins that are more likely to experience growth early in the cycle.
This strategy has several advantages:
➜ You will start making a profit sooner.
➜ You can participate in low-cap rotation.
➜ By realizing profits early, you will outperform 80% of other market participants

◢ Factor #3
Altcoins grow due to a clear thesis appealing to retail investors. As crypto gains popularity, more retail investors join in.
➜ Consider public opinion even with technical knowledge. To succeed in the altseason, focus on simplicity and the retail perspective.
Dog coins outperform due to rapid growth in meme popularity.
✓ Retail is definitely already in the market, even if it's not much, don't forget about it.

Here are a few projects that I think could exhibit remarkable strength from the start of altseason.
With their clear thesis and significant interest, the chances of them gaining traction are exceedingly high.
Let's dive ⇩

◢ $WIF / $PEPE
Memecoins will definitely be one of the first to start with huge strength in the alt season.
$WIF / $PEPE have a similar structure to $DOGE in the last cycle, hinting at significant potential upside.
Their initial target is $SHIB mcap (marked on the chart), which seems like a conservative goal, yet highly probable to be achieved soon.
From a technical perspective:
➜ $PEPE appears stronger and primed for a surge
➜ $WIF seems slightly weaker presently, but this could shift within just in one week

◢ @OndoFinance - $ONDO
It's a very strong coin. Every dip is constantly greedily bought, don't give a chance to buy lower.
Looks like the best entry point I wrote earlier can be forgotten about:
➜
I moved the best buy zone to $0.64, if it is lucky and miraculously ends up there before the growth, it will be a good entry point.
And if the triangle exit happens upwards, it should be massive momentum.

◢ @ArweaveEco - $AR
- Decentralized storage network aiming to provide a platform for the permanent storage of data
- Building @aoTheComputer: Decentralized computer network that enables compute to run anywhere and provides aos in a unique interactive shell.
Coin has formed a clear structure on the weekly chart. Despite the market drop, it showed strength and quickly bounced back.
If it consolidates above $49, there is a higher chance of it entering a super cycle.
AI + DePIN narrative, coupled with a clear thesis, clean structure, and the upcoming alt season, all contribute to a high probability of showing major growth.

◢ @EchelonFND - $PRIME
Parallel is a gaming universe with unique elements:
- @ParallelTCG: a Trading Card Game blending traditional mechanics with digital innovations, approved for the Epic Games store.
- @ParallelColony: an AI-powered strategic survival simulation game set in future Earth.
➜ Project with a strong fundamental that already boasts a large audience and continues to attract more gamers.
On the technical side, the price is near a favorable buying zone.
Hoping that altcoins are already entering the altseason, would like to see a V-shaped reversal

◢ @ethena_labs - $ENA
Ethena is a synthetic dollar protocol, offering a crypto-native alternative to traditional banking with the Internet Bond.
- The next unlocking event is scheduled for April 2025
- The chart displays a well-known pattern on the weekly chart that typically precedes significant growth
Given the altseason, this pattern is expected to rebound much quicker compared to projects launched during a bear market.
Here’s a great comparison with the $SEI chart.

◢ Profit-Taking
➜ I anticipate that during the upcoming altseason, ATH #TOTAL3 (alts index) could reach $2-2.3T.
Considering not all altcoins will see a big pump, I've adjusted my expectations. Once we hit $1.6T, it may be wise to consider partial profit-taking.
✓ In 2022, many people are falling into traps due to greed.
Selling early can lead to substantial profits, whereas holding without selling could result in significant losses.

But remember, the road to ATH won't be a smooth ride; it's not all about constant growth. The market may experience sudden flash crashes attempting to shake out people.
There might be weeks of downward trends or a cycle of bad news continuously impacting the market.
Stay prepared and ensure your emotions don't cloud your judgment.

During times of rapid growth and excitement, it's common to hesitate when it comes to selling, yet preparing in advance for profit-taking is key.
➜ Prepare a strategy in advance to avoid making hasty decisions. Leave 10-15% of positions for potential further growth.
However, the final surge of growth often triggers excessive greed. If you sense this feeling creeping in, it might be the right time to sell everything and exit the market.

➜ When the bear cycle begins, I anticipate it will be extremely brutal and aggressive.
To prepare yourself ahead of time, ensure you read this to avoid losing all your hard-earned gains ⇩

That's a wrap!
My analysis is primarily built on sentiment, as I believe it plays a significant role in identifying crucial moments in the market accurately.
I remember a similar sentiment at $17k and $28k on $BTC. While many anticipated a drop, the market went up.
Additionally, @CryptoHayes shared in his latest essay "Mayday" a similar opinion that the local bottom has already been hit.
Here's a short excerpt ⇩

➜ Certainly, the market can experience some volatility. But looking at the global view, the potential volatility doesn't seem significant at all.
✓ However, I firmly believe that the altseason is "just about a meter away". But to be transparent, I still hold some stables in case of another shakeout.