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Thread:
WILL RAUL VINCI WIN FROM RAEBARELI?
Let me give you a systematic analysis.... unlike the Piddis who keep flying kites in Thin Air!
Will divide in 3 parts:-
🔥Why did RAJMATA run away?
🔥Present Ground Reality
🔥Conclusion
Shall I start?
1/15

🔥Why has RAJMATA ran away from Raebareli portrayed by media as "family seat"?
You'll get idea from 2019 Rae Bareli LS rounded off data.
Total electors: 1630K
Valid votes polled: 58.2%
Turnout: 948K
Antonia Maino: 535K
Dinesh Pratap Singh (BJP): 368K Victory Margin: 167K
2/15

So Antonia Maino won by 167K votes.
You know what it means?
It means if 84K more voters had voted for BJP instead of CONgress, she would've lost. This is 8.8% of total votes polled. So Rae Bareli seat even in 2019 was not that easy or straightforward for CONgress.
3/15

Now, let's take deep dive into each of 5 assembly constituencies of Raebareli LS. I'll give you Developments in 2022 also for better understanding of Part2.
1) Bachhrawan(SC seat)2019-
Antonia Maino: 101K
Dinesh Singh (BJP): 77K
Lead: 24K
2022 MLA - Shyam Sunder (SP)
4/15

2) Harchandpur 2019-
Antonia Maino: 98K
Dinesh Pratap Singh (BJP): 72K Lead: 26K
2022 MLA- Rahul Rajput (SP)
3) Raebareli Sadar 2019-
Antonia Maino: 123K
Dinesh Pratap Singh (BJP): 62K Lead: 61K
2022 MLA - Aditi Singh (BJP)
5/15

4) Sareni 2019-
Antonia Maino: 108K
Dinesh Pratap Singh (BJP): 79K
Lead: 29K
2022 MLA - Devendra Pratap Singh (SP)
5) Unchahar 2019-
Antonia Maino: 103K
Dinesh Pratap Singh (BJP): 76K Lead: 27K
2022 MLA - Manoj Pandey (SP)
6/15

So did you observe that Antonia Maino got highest lead in the Raebareli Sadar assembly constituency, with other four segments in only 24K-29K range.
Now, here starts trouble for Raul Vinci!
🔥Part 2- PRESENT GROUND REALITY!
Things have changed tremendously since 2019.
7/15

1) Aditi Singh is NOW in BJP. She has been spitting🔥against treatment meted to her in every interview. Her family is MOST INFLUENTIAL in Raebareli Sadar.
2) Manoj Pandey from Unchahar is now with BJP unofficially. He was also key person in Raebareli for CONgress in 2019.
8/15

So, with Aditi Singh & Manoj Pandey, two Most IMP assembly segments of Raebareli LS seat are NOW under BJP influence.
3) Samajwadi Party की इतनी फटी पड़ी है that it has not been actively campaigning for its own candidates outside their first family.
9/15

4) SP has 4 MLAs in Raebareli LS Constituency, but ONLY ON PAPER. It's main guy... Manoj Pandey is now aligned with BJP & 2 others are virtually off ground with their deliberate absence. Remember, these 2 had cross-
voted in favour of BJP in RS Election.
10/15

5) CONgress does not have much local cadre & support. Antonia Maino was winning only because SP never fielded candidate against her. Now 2 MLAs openly with BJP & 2 Silently absent!
(5) Kishori Lal Sharma used to manage local affairs of CONgress in Amethi & Raebareli.
11/15

But Raul Vinci, like a FOO£, has bowed to Bianca's pressure to field same KL Sharma from #Amethi constituency. The Idi0t hasn't even understood this that she has cut his wings. KL Sharma won't be able to give time in Raebareli as he has to concentrate now on his own seat!
12/15

6) There is no way Raul Vinci will retain Rae Bareli EVEN IF he wins & IF he wins in Wayanad too, as #Kerala goes for assembly polls in 2026 & Raul can't afford to annoy ONLY state where CONgress has a chance to win Assembly. And even Raebareli voters know this.
13/15

So, there is no incentive for Raebareli voters to elect Raul Vinci now. Public Perception matters most.
7) Last but not the least...BSP has fielded Thakur Prasad Yadav from Raebareli. He will make a BIG DENT in Yadav Votes & hurt Raul Vinci. Thank you, Behan Mayawati Ji.
14/15

Raul Vinci completely cornered...
by BJP, BSP & Most importantly by his own sister Bianca who threw Fake Heroics of fielding her कबाड़ी husband Robert Wadra from #Amethi.
🔥Part3-CONCLUSION!
BJP MAY WIN WITH AROUND 50K VOTES!
Royal Family to lose BOTH #AmethiRaebareli!
15/15

I request you to retweet max as my account is heavily reported to kill my reach for exposing lies & agenda of Anti-Bharat forces. So pls retweet max if you agree with my above information. We can break such False Narratives ONLY by showing unity. Thank all in advance 🙏

Would like to thank @ShrrinG for basic stats & reports which were passed on to me by a Psephology Firm without mentioning it was taken from him. I sincerely Thank those who brought it to my notice. Good work, Bhai. Regards. 🙏

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