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Putin seems unstoppable writes WP. The Russian president’s forces are advancing in Ukraine, his main political adversary is dead, U.S. aid to Kyiv is stalled and fear has squelched protests in Moscow. NYTimes reinforces: "Ukraine is in a precarious position"
What's next? 1/

I think Russia will continue their onslaught towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk and might be successful there soon
Of course, the US administration blames Republicans for the failure to pass support for Ukraine, but the failure runs deeper. 2/

In 2022, the administration submitted funding requests in the spring, almost immediately after the invasion. But in 2023, it waited until mid fall to announce what it plans to submit. So, there is that, a deeper game between Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming elections 3/

The Avdiivka demonstrates the cost of these political delays: human lives, lost territory, and encouraged Russia. If that's the plan "to be with Ukraine as long as it takes", then the US delays in aid have just prolonged the war 4/

Then to be frank even if the Congress were to pass the support bill last week, the arms wouldn't arrive to Ukraine until months from now. So the legislation should have been passed in the fall the latest. The US chose to pause and allowed Russia to gain and kill more 5/

What has been happening in Avdiivka. Let's go to NYTimes as it is a reputable source and its report is consistent with what I hear from other sources and friends. 6/

Avdiivka is lost. Since January 1, Russia has dropped around 1 million pounds of aerial bombs on an area of just 12 square miles around Avdiivka
Let me add: This what delays in air defense and F-16 mean in practice. Russia managed to obtain air superiority there. 7/

Once the air secured, Russia can bomb everything out of existence. It is a slow, grinding process, but the result is definitive if Russia has unlimited munitions and Ukraine has close to nothing. 8/

Back to NYTimes: Avdiivka fell to Russian forces on February 17 after months of horrific fighting in which Russia's superior firepower and manpower overwhelmed Ukrainian forces, despite Russia incurring heavy casualties.9/

Astonishingly, over 900 civilians remained in Avdiivka until the end, living underground and surviving on aid brought in by volunteers at great risk. 10/

Russian tactics involved dropping hundreds of guided bombs weighing up to 3,300 pounds each, collapsing buildings, killing and trapping many civilians.11/

The bombardment was described as "a textbook punishment campaign" designed to raise the costs of resistance and coerce surrender. 12/

NYTimes makes an interesting point, with which I agree, but doesn't explain the entire scope of the Russian punishment campaigns. Mariupol was another punishment campaign. Kharkiv where civilians are bombarded and killed daily is another example. There is a pattern. 13/

When it comes to civilians, Russia goes harder at what it considers "ethnic / pro-Russian" parts of Ukraine. It kills people who speak Russian en masse. And those who have survived the combat phase are then tortured during occupation. 14/

Let me make an aside comment that I don't think there are "ethnic Russian" or "pro-Russian" parts or people in Ukraine. Not now. Perhaps not ever. According to Russian / Putin's criteria I am a typical ethnic Russian. My native is Russian. My mom was burned in Russia 15/

etc etc etc ... According to Putin they invaded Ukraine to protect people like me from ... people like me.
Anyway ... 15/

NYTimes goes on to describe the awful condition of civilians living in a city during Russian attacks. Residents who escaped described scenes of chaos, bloodshed, and "Armageddon" as Russian troops infiltrated neighborhoods.16/

Many civilians refused to evacuate, staying behind to tend graves or due to a belief the fighting would eventually end. 17/

Volunteers brought food, water and medicine to the remaining civilians up until the final Ukrainian withdrawal when evacuation became impossible 18/

The capture of Avdiivka was hailed by Putin as an "important victory", but the human toll on both military and civilians is immense. Reports include numbers from 15 to as high as 60K Russian soldiers killed just to gain this small town of no strategic importance 19/

The numbers of civilian casualties or of Ukrainian army losses are unknown at this time or at least not disclosed.
We are grateful to the US for their support and we understand that no one owes us a dollar, but for me it is difficult to suppress frustration 20/

So, what's next? Eventually the US will come through with aid, not enough and very late. Hopefully, our defense lines won't collapse until then. If the aid is meaningful, Ukraine will be able to hold the lines it will have at the time. Then, we'll have another "stalemate" X

Sources: washingtonpost.com
nytimes.com