As the likelihood of a #Trump-#Biden rematch strengthens, Chinese scholars have begun to weigh up the pros and cons for China of having either of the two men back in power.
Fudan University Prof. Wang Hao (王浩) provides his assessment.
[THREAD]
sinification.com
Fudan University Prof. Wang Hao (王浩) provides his assessment.
[THREAD]
sinification.com
▫️ The Author:
▫️ Summary of Wang's views:
- What a second #Biden term might mean for China:
🔹Advantages:
1. More “stability” for US-China relations.
2. Greater “flexibility” in the US’s China policy: more opportunities for both sides to engage and cooperate.
- What a second #Biden term might mean for China:
🔹Advantages:
1. More “stability” for US-China relations.
2. Greater “flexibility” in the US’s China policy: more opportunities for both sides to engage and cooperate.
🔹Disadvantages:
1. The “maturing” of Washington's containment strategy towards Beijing, which would have a greater impact on 🇨🇳's economic and technological development.
2. The continued strengthening of the US alliance system and its increasingly negative impact on the PRC.
1. The “maturing” of Washington's containment strategy towards Beijing, which would have a greater impact on 🇨🇳's economic and technological development.
2. The continued strengthening of the US alliance system and its increasingly negative impact on the PRC.
... the international pressures currently facing Beijing and providing it with “more space” to exert its own influence around the world.
2. Short-termism under #DonaldTrump would weaken the US’s current long-term containment strategy against #China.
2. Short-termism under #DonaldTrump would weaken the US’s current long-term containment strategy against #China.
3. A lesser emphasis on values might allow Washington and Beijing to maintain stability through the “trade-off of interests”.
🔹Disadvantages:
1. Short-term instability in relations: much that has been achieved recently would have to be rebuilt. “Shocks” (冲击) are also to be expected.
2. A new Trump administration would be set on proving its anti-China credentials.
1. Short-term instability in relations: much that has been achieved recently would have to be rebuilt. “Shocks” (冲击) are also to be expected.
2. A new Trump administration would be set on proving its anti-China credentials.
3. US-China cooperation on major global issues would decrease and would no longer be able to act as a strong hedge against US-China tensions.
4. Economic and military rivalry might increase.
4. Economic and military rivalry might increase.
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