BIG #BITCOIN ALPHA UPDATE 13/1/2024 🧵
No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅
Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF
Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind
Let's get to it 👇
1/25
No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅
Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF
Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind
Let's get to it 👇
1/25
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context 👇
So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback
So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback
So the 48K level caused a reaction as expected but imo we move higher still to distribute & there are multiple reasons for it
1) We spent 500+ days accumulating sub 30K, such energy simply doesn't get distributed in 30 days. At minimum 120+ days
1) We spent 500+ days accumulating sub 30K, such energy simply doesn't get distributed in 30 days. At minimum 120+ days
2) With a close above 48K you truly break the Monthly structure but then you need to take a pause, distribute, and make a HTF pullback to find a new energy for continuation
The psychological aspect is the same in both directions. We are undergoing the reverse scenario of #BTC 22
The psychological aspect is the same in both directions. We are undergoing the reverse scenario of #BTC 22
Notice the levels are slightly different & that's why they say "History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes". So each new situation needs to be adjusted to the current levels
I expect a breakout & distribution between 48-60K, then a HTF pullback to ~32K
I expect a breakout & distribution between 48-60K, then a HTF pullback to ~32K
This is the HTF range I'm playing & I do expect the Monthly inefficiencies since 32K to get filled, just like we filled the ones from 2019 during Covid crash
I do not yet know what causes this but there is a good chance of that happening (at some point)
I do not yet know what causes this but there is a good chance of that happening (at some point)
Just going to quickly mention a possible scenario in case we keep CHADing even higher as my take has always been:
"I'm bullish as long as the structure & economic data are"
I'm just giving this a low probability of 10-20% but ready for it, as you should be
If we were to flip the 60K into support & also create some local support leading to it then I could see even this playing out. For now, however, that's a far distant bias
"I'm bullish as long as the structure & economic data are"
I'm just giving this a low probability of 10-20% but ready for it, as you should be
If we were to flip the 60K into support & also create some local support leading to it then I could see even this playing out. For now, however, that's a far distant bias
So now there is a good question:
"Ok J that all makes sense, but why not pullback already from here to 32K? Why distribute between 48-60K first?
And we certainly could do that too but also would give it a low probability of 10-20% and I'll get into reasons why 👇
"Ok J that all makes sense, but why not pullback already from here to 32K? Why distribute between 48-60K first?
And we certainly could do that too but also would give it a low probability of 10-20% and I'll get into reasons why 👇
So as you can see in the screen above and probably all around X as well, each cycle we had a strong reaction at or near the 61.8% retracement level
This cycle we are getting a reaction too but each cycle is similar but sort of different
And what matters are the current levels
This cycle we are getting a reaction too but each cycle is similar but sort of different
And what matters are the current levels
Also, notice that the structure leading to it is different each cycle too & I believe we are sort of getting a mix of 2016 & 2019
In 16 we had 3 major HTF re-accumulation boxes
In 19 we just inefficiently ran up & then distributed
In 23 maybe 2 boxes & distribution
10/25 🧵
In 16 we had 3 major HTF re-accumulation boxes
In 19 we just inefficiently ran up & then distributed
In 23 maybe 2 boxes & distribution
10/25 🧵
As I said there is a small chance of the pullback happening already from here, but giving it a low probability. So far the trend is intact & we play the trend 🤝
Should we however lose 40K on Weekly close I'd expect that 32K HTF retest, wick below is OK. That's the invalidation
Should we however lose 40K on Weekly close I'd expect that 32K HTF retest, wick below is OK. That's the invalidation
Now I'll get to MTF & LTF reasons why I think that is not the case & why we have one more HTF leg higher although I cannot include all
So first of all a fractal we call a"vertical re-accumulation". We had that at 35K & now again. We were also getting SFPs after SFPs at the time
So first of all a fractal we call a"vertical re-accumulation". We had that at 35K & now again. We were also getting SFPs after SFPs at the time
The sentiment was also bad at the time after the drop, most kept calling for a 30K retest, and given the context, I used that as my additional entry. Worked like a charm
Now the funding got very much reset to even lower levels not seen since October before the big move from 25K
Now the funding got very much reset to even lower levels not seen since October before the big move from 25K
A strong bearish argument is also the current Daily RSI bearish divergence but a significant fractal with #SOL paints a different picture
There are just too many people at the moment trying to catch the perfect TOP, seeing the 62% retracement level, seeing the bearish divergence & so on
This one kills those dreams & truly changes the sentiment
And c'mon but the market simply doesn't top on Jim Cramer saying so 😁
This one kills those dreams & truly changes the sentiment
And c'mon but the market simply doesn't top on Jim Cramer saying so 😁
Zooming in even further the market is currently sitting on an oversold H4 RSI & each time since October that happened it meant the local bottom
Also, we are sitting on the 50 Daily EMA (Could see a fakeout 1st before more upside)
Also, we are sitting on the 50 Daily EMA (Could see a fakeout 1st before more upside)
The retail trader, as he spends most time on the H1 & H4 timeframe, will be looking to short the bearish retest. And I do expect that area to give a reaction
BUT
One cannot forget the MTF & HTF structure which remains bullish 💡
Also we merely did a YEARLY OPEN retest ✍️
BUT
One cannot forget the MTF & HTF structure which remains bullish 💡
Also we merely did a YEARLY OPEN retest ✍️
To sum it up: The HTF trend is intact & the LTF trend is positioning the retail trader to short the retest
The HTF imo still needs to change sentiment between 48-60K region for an extended period of time around 120+ days
The HTF imo still needs to change sentiment between 48-60K region for an extended period of time around 120+ days
Also great look at my own discovered chart of #BTC vs M1SL
We are at resistance but not the big one yet, I do expect that to get hit, then we get a HTF pullback & then we get the proper 1st HTF cycle since 2016/17
Called it from the very bottom 👇
We are at resistance but not the big one yet, I do expect that to get hit, then we get a HTF pullback & then we get the proper 1st HTF cycle since 2016/17
Called it from the very bottom 👇
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Also for the quick ones, if you use code "Jackis50" you get a 50$ discount but only works for the 1st 50 people & 14 are already taken & I do expect this thread gains traction & the seats will be taken quickly so do not wait too long ✍️
Most people that come, stay as we have one of the highest conversions in the industry due to all the quality
To those who are not able to afford this, I'll start a BB newsletter in 2/3 months for a very cheap price, and to those who are not even able to afford that, I'll keep sharing on X no worries. Just if you want to take it to the next level, then try us out
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I'd invite the current members to share their honest experiences below this post 🙏
So yeah, use code: "Jackis50" on the link below or in my bio
becausebitcoin.com
Lastly, I do hope this thread helps you to make the right choices going forward & prepare for w/e happens
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Also bookmark 🔖
Thank you 🫶
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