❗️President Dèby's hold on power is weak: His deal with the UAE to back the RSF in Sudan have divided the Zaghawa who fear see Hemedti as a threat to their power.
❗️Deby has fired generals loyal to his father and brought in advisors, like Youssof Boy, who make stupid decisions
❗️Deby has fired generals loyal to his father and brought in advisors, like Youssof Boy, who make stupid decisions
❗️Deby thinks he can consolidate power by buying off the opposition, like he recently did with Succes Masra; change the constitution so he can run for President and others cant; and use Western support for his ongoing CT operations to justify his rule.
❗️But the dam is breaking
❗️But the dam is breaking
❗️But in the face of Deby losing his hold on power and trigger fighting within the Zaghawa and between Northern and Southern factions, Washington and Paris are doing nothing to either push for genuine reforms from Deby or support actual pro-democracy forces in the country.
❗️Soon they will get to choose between a constitutional coup of Deby's making or a military coup of his forces' making
❗️But occupying a bridge between jihadist violence in the western Sahel and civil war in Sudan, Chad's descent into violent collapse will be catastrophic
❗️But occupying a bridge between jihadist violence in the western Sahel and civil war in Sudan, Chad's descent into violent collapse will be catastrophic
❗️Chad is tricky because we have hard security concerns in the country and region but also, presumably, democratic values we want to advance
❗️These might be in tension, but they dont have to be in opposition but it will take more attention than Chad is getting to avoid disaster.
❗️These might be in tension, but they dont have to be in opposition but it will take more attention than Chad is getting to avoid disaster.
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