My latest commentary on Sudan for @CSISAfrica👇🏻 For those wishing for the TL;DR version, the potential victory of the RSF or the bifurcation of Sudan into zones of influence will have catastrophic effects for the region and the people. Several truisms
csis.org
csis.org
must be factored in to ending the conflict:
1. There can be no integration of RSF into SAF
2. These two armies cant continue to co-exist
3. The RSF/Hemedti will always remain a threat to the Sudanese people and state
4. A new version of the SAF must emerge
1. There can be no integration of RSF into SAF
2. These two armies cant continue to co-exist
3. The RSF/Hemedti will always remain a threat to the Sudanese people and state
4. A new version of the SAF must emerge
I take no pleasure or pride in arguing that it is time for a coalition of outside states to back the SAF's victory over the RSF and the dismantlement of the RSF, but with a series of strings attached requiring SAF to:
1. Hand over power to a civilian administration to manage all
1. Hand over power to a civilian administration to manage all
humanitarian operations, including issuing visas
2. SAF ceases harassment/detention of civil society/ RC leaders
3. SAF disavows Islamists and removes them from positions of authority
4. SAF submits to full civilian-led reform process post-war
For its part, Washington has several
2. SAF ceases harassment/detention of civil society/ RC leaders
3. SAF disavows Islamists and removes them from positions of authority
4. SAF submits to full civilian-led reform process post-war
For its part, Washington has several
steps it can take:
1. Engaging privately with states like Egypt, KSA, and Turkey to engineer a SAF victory (Egypt's destruction of the Shambat bridge is a good example of that)
2. Heavily sanction the RSF leadership and Islamist leaders, well beyond what they have done thus far
1. Engaging privately with states like Egypt, KSA, and Turkey to engineer a SAF victory (Egypt's destruction of the Shambat bridge is a good example of that)
2. Heavily sanction the RSF leadership and Islamist leaders, well beyond what they have done thus far
3. Put real financial and diplomatic support behind a Sudanese owned process to enable a civilian governing coalition to emerge, well beyond what they think they did in Addis.
There is now an intersection of the failing humanitarian situation, the real prospect of an RSF victory
There is now an intersection of the failing humanitarian situation, the real prospect of an RSF victory
and considerable threats to US national security interests related to regional instability from Sudan's further dissolution that requires a bold gesture at this moment. The existing international approach has not achieved sufficient progress and the consequences are now too dire
to wait and let this war unfold organically. Its time to actively shape an outcome and a future, in partnership with the Sudanese and the region, that protects lives and advances interests at the same time. This is not a pro-SAF argument. It's a pro-Sudan appeal.
I know its controversial but in the absence of any original thinking in Washington, I think its time this discussion get started and we stop reacting to events driven by the belligerents and start engaging in more meaningful ways that hopefully reflect our interests and values.✌️🏻
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