This post - aggregating several geolocation efforts – appears to conclude that it was PAL rocket misfire based on mere *synchronicity* between a visible rocket fire over Gaza and the explosion geolocated on the site of the hospital. 2/x
x.com
x.com
It does not seem possible, based on the data used by @GeoConfirmed, to discard the hypothesis of two synchronous events – one rocket fire and one targeted bombing – with no causal links between them. 4/x
A number of accounts online, including @Osinttechnical, have been relaying this poorly substantiated argument
6/x
x.com
6/x
x.com
On this topic, see our joint @ForensicArchi and @amnesty analysis of the bombing of Rafah in 2014 (example of a 1-ton MK84 bombing)...
forensic-architecture.org
8/x
forensic-architecture.org
8/x
For the historians here, the "no crater" argument painfully resonates with the negationist argument of Robert Faurisson : no holes (visible in the roof structures of Auschwitz) = no gas chambers = no Holocaust.
See @weizman_eyal key analysis of this invalid argument (after RJVP)
See @weizman_eyal key analysis of this invalid argument (after RJVP)
Interestingly, as I write, same account now publishing actual picture of a small crater on site in Al-Ahli Hospital.
11/x
x.com
11/x
x.com
Now, let's look at the available information that would point to #Israel's responsibility in this blast
First, the @IDF actually already bombed the hospital on 14/10, as a "warning" to evacuate, as @lemondefr has reported.
12/x
lemonde.fr
First, the @IDF actually already bombed the hospital on 14/10, as a "warning" to evacuate, as @lemondefr has reported.
12/x
lemonde.fr
Second, while I'm not an expert on Pal rockets, the probability of the thesis that :
- a *fragment* of a rocket exploded in mid-air over #Gaza
- would fall *precisely* on the courtyard of the hospital,
- and generate a blast capable of killing hundreds,
seems EXTREMELY low
- a *fragment* of a rocket exploded in mid-air over #Gaza
- would fall *precisely* on the courtyard of the hospital,
- and generate a blast capable of killing hundreds,
seems EXTREMELY low
The use of this argument by @IDF to cover up particularly deadly strikes, then admitting responsibility later, has already occurred many times in the past. Ex :
Israeli Strike Killed 5 Gaza Children, Officials Admit, After Initially Blaming Islamic Jihad
haaretz.com
Israeli Strike Killed 5 Gaza Children, Officials Admit, After Initially Blaming Islamic Jihad
haaretz.com
And let us remember the murder of Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh by an Israeli soldier in may 2022, for which Israel blamed Pal militants before admitting responsibility 4 months later :
16/x
nytimes.com
16/x
nytimes.com
Finally, we should take into account the testimony of surgeon @GhassanAbuSitt1 , who had just moved to the Al-Ahli hospital from Shifa that morning and was operating as the hospital was hit.
17/x
17/x
Information is still emerging. At this stage, I would refrain from drawing any conclusion with 100% certainty.
But as we collectively mourn the hundreds of civilian victims, it's important to underline that an #Israeli strike currently remains, by far, the most probable cause.
But as we collectively mourn the hundreds of civilian victims, it's important to underline that an #Israeli strike currently remains, by far, the most probable cause.
For the record : This comment/analysis is strictly personal and does not represent the position of any org or institution that I am, or have been, affiliated with.
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