🧵With war on Egypt’s doorstep, policymakers are confronted with two urgent questions, according to five high-ranking Egyptian political and diplomatic sources speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity.
How would Egypt handle tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced into Sinai by the assault on Gaza? And with the economic crisis and impending presidential elections weighing down, will Cairo face diplomatic pressure to accommodate the displacement?
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With Israel escalating its assault on Gaza and a ground invasion imminent, Israeli officials appeared to suggest on Tuesday that Palestinians could “escape” the strip into Egypt.

Yet, after three Israeli air strikes on the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, there is no way for Palestinians to exit the strip.

Anonymous Egyptian security sources began to tell domestic and global outlets that Egypt insists its borders should be upheld, and that official humanitarian pathways must be established by Israel.

An Egyptian government source tells Mada Masr that Cairo “will not allow” a repeat of what happened in 2008, when the siege on Gaza was first implemented and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians broke through the border into Sinai.

Whatever Egypt’s position, there is no ruling out that displacement could happen, and Egypt has a plan ready to implement if instructed by the Egyptian presidency to house Palestinians in Egypt.

And while Egypt is trying to diplomatically manage the crisis, its historic role as a mediator has largely been usurped by Gulf powers. This is evident in the fact that the US administration has only held communication at the diplomatic level thus far.

Given pressure from the heavy domestic issues facing Egypt — an escalating debt crisis and presidential elections any second — sources say there is concern that Cairo’s negotiating position would be weak if Israel, backed by the US, was to propose a major resettlement of Palestinians in Sinai.
Egypt has an increasingly smaller space to maneuver in the face of all of this pressure. With a ground invasion of Gaza all but certain, Egypt will have to make very difficult decisions in the coming days as the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe becomes clear.
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