I have an anecdote that I think better captures some of the present challenges. On a recent trip to Moganshan I stumbled across a group tour of around 20 young Shanghai residents. Many of them said that their industry is “not doing well.” (2/9)
A couple people from the medical sector said they were having extra “holiday” time at the moment while the anti-corruption campaign is being conducted at hospitals and pharma firms. (3/9)
A young man working in finance said he is also very “idle” at the moment as primary and secondary capital markets are both quiet. One public sector worker, a judge’s assistant, seemed to be the busiest among the group, due to a recent rise in creditor lawsuits. (4/9)
But everyone in the group, regardless of their situation, seemed happy and lighthearted. They had all decided to spend money on a weekend hiking excursion, despite the uncertainties many of them face in their professional lives. (5/9)
Later, while sheltering during a rainstorm, I overhead some middle-aged hikers talking about the economy: “My friend works in the data bureau and she says they have to make the data up, they have no choice”… (6/9)
“There is definitely deflation right now. Things I used to buy on Taobao cost less than they did last year. Exports are doing badly”…“Isn’t it the same in the US?”…“No, the US economy is doing alright”… (7/9)
Yet despite all the negative chatter, domestic consumption has by no means collapsed as the above post seemed to suggest. Moganshan, like many domestic tourist sites this summer, was packed when I visited recently. (8/9)
All this to say: things in China are rarely black or white. If you read a post that draws straightforward conclusions based on very superficial analysis, treat it with the utmost skepticism and seek alternative sources of info that can better support or refute the point. (9/9)
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