Im guessing that the visa sanction was the best the US could do, less impactful than a financial sanction that Treasury OFAC imposes, because US intelligence likely couldnt get the necessary identifier information. Of greater impact is the sanctioning of Hemedti's brother,
Abdulrahim Dagalo who is not only reportedly the guy who has traveled to Chad, CAR, and UAE to secure external support for the RSF and who is also central to the Dagalo family business empire. Corporations like Zadna, where he is a director, will presumably also be hurt by this.
More importantly, the sanctioning of exclusively RSF targets, as opposed to SAF or Islamists targets which many in DC and the diaspora had been heavily lobbying for, sends a message at this stage that the RSF is being particularly targeted. This coincides with the 2nd US cabinet
official to travel to Chad's border with Sudan to highlight RSF crimes in Darfur. Clearly, with all the RSF's high-priced PR consultants they forgot that despite our pitiful response, the US still cares deeply about events in Darfur and civilians there. usun.usmission.gov
And beyond US actions, Sudan's Sovereignty Council announcing the dissolution of the RSF makes official what Burhan called for at the start of the war, which is returning the RSF to its militia status. This will make talks in Jeddah, whenever they start, aa.com.tr
more difficult since before SAF bristled at being treated as an RSF equal, now they are constitutionally not an equal. Because Washington and Riyadh have dithered they will now have to figure out how to treat these talks among unequal parties.
Additionally, with Burhan in Doha this week and plans for him to be in UAE and KSA next week, and NY UNGA the following week, Burhan seems to be putting in place an international strategy to gain backers for his plan for ending the war and isolating RSF. dohanews.co
He is aided in this effort by persistent rumors that Hemedti is himself wounded or dead, given his lack of any kind of publicly verifiable response to Burhan's globetrotting. Finally, there is the battlefield reality which across the country appears to be shifting to favor SAF.
The massive destruction of Nyala appears to have been a successful effort to cut off RSF supply lines from CAR. middleeasteye.net
This is in addition to a SAF attack on an RSF base on the Libyan border where it was also getting resupplied. sudantribune.net
I would like to think that all these suggest a military and political shift in the conflict against the RSF in a way that enables a quicker end to the fighting. This would also suggest the importance now of opening a line of communication to SAF leaders to create expectations
about what comes next since after all a SAF victory could well risk entrenching a force which has been no friend to the Sudanese people and which has themselves committed crimes on and off the battlefield which will need to be answered for. But that seems more manageable today.
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