13 تغريدة 4 قراءة Aug 15, 2023
𝟭. 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱: India VIX is calculated based on the implied volatility of NIFTY 50 index options. It represents investors' expectations of market volatility over the next 30 days.
To simplify it...
VIX of say 10 means that, for the next one month, market participants expect the Nifty 50 to move by an annualized rate of 10% in either direction.
A 10% move in one year, as you can well gauge, is not a high number.
𝟮. 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: India VIX typically has an inverse relationship with the stock market. When the market is down, India VIX tends to rise, reflecting increased uncertainty and fear among investors.
𝟯. 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗸𝗲𝘄: India VIX doesn't always move uniformly across all strike prices of options. The volatility skew shows that certain strike prices might have higher implied volatility than others, indicating specific market expectations.
𝟰. 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗖𝗹𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀: Market volatility tends to cluster around certain events or periods. India VIX may remain elevated before significant economic announcements, elections, or global geopolitical events.
𝟱. 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘃𝘀 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺: While India VIX measures short-term volatility expectations, it doesn't provide insight into long-term market trends. It's more focused on immediate market sentiment.
𝟲. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲: While India VIX doesn't predict specific market movements, a sustained increase in VIX could signal potential market turbulence. However, short-term spikes might not always lead to major market downturns.
𝟳. 𝗩𝗶𝘅 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼: India VIX can be used to manage portfolio risk by adjusting positions or adding protective strategies during periods of high volatility.
𝟴. 𝗩𝗶𝘅 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹-𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: During prolonged bull markets, India VIX might experience lower average levels due to overall market optimism, but sudden spikes can still occur. Vice versa is for bear markets.
𝟵. 𝗩𝗶𝘅 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀: India VIX helps validate and calibrate option pricing models used by market participants and financial institutions.
Remember, while India VIX can provide valuable insights, it's important to combine its information with other indicators and analysis for a comprehensive view of market conditions.
That's a wrap!
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