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Long Thread. #Politics & #Geopolitics of #ManipurViolence.
(sm of the pts are best assumptions, & sm pts are deliberately left opaque for imaginations).
#ManipurBurning #Manipur_Violence
1/n. #KPA (#Kuki Pple's Alliance) is a small political party who fought elections only in..

2/n. 2 seats out of total 60 assembly seats in #MANIPUR, whr they also fought against #BJP candidates. BJP fielded candidates in all 60 seats. #KPA was not part of #NDA alliance before the 2022 Assembly election. KPA won 2 seats - #Saikul & #Singhat. Both are reserved seats..

3/n. for ST. In 1 seat #KPA defeated a #BJP candidate who was in 2nd position, & in another seat #INC candidate was in 2nd position. Both the seats were snatched from #INC. KPA decided to support #NDA after the polls which is political norm in recent times in NE states. Not..

4/n. only majority of voters tend to vote for the party at #Centre, but smaller parties tend to go w/ the winning coalition in all the #NE states. So, 2 KPA & 3 Independent candidates extended support to #NDA post poll. KPA was a newly formed party just before the election..

5/n. & they wr not part of #NDA during the elections, although #BJP was keen to form alliance with #NPF. #KPA, NPF, #NPP fought seperately but after election they extended their support to BJP. 3 Independents also support the NDA govt in #MANIPUR. NPP is part of NDA & #NEDA..

6/n. alliance & majorly concentrated in Meghalaya. Bck to #MANIPUR, in #Singhat #KPA fought against #BJP but later supported #NDA alliance. In #Saikul KPA defeated #INC candidate (2nd position). Both the seats were snatched from INC. INC got decimated in ths 2 seats..

7/n. Now 2 interesting facts - 1) 7 of the #BJP MLAs are #Kuki by ethnicity, & 2 #KPA MLAs are also Kuki & so is 1 Independent candidate. Ths 10 Kuki ethnic MLAs have demanded now to curve a separate land for Kukis within #MANIPUR borders to avoid future backlash. 2) The Women..

8/n. #MLA frm #KPA is actually daughter of a former #BJP MLA & married to Chairman of #Kuki Militant group #KRA. Plz note, thr are multiple Kuki factions & Meitei factions who are involved in armed #Militancy in the state. #Naga Militant groups also operates in the state.

9/n. Now the complexity of the recent ongoing violence, everybody talks abt the history of ethnic fault lines, bt I want to highlight the intended or unintended political & geopolitical outcomes if things are not properly managed..

10/n. 1) #IndianArmy has worked closely with sm of the #Kuki #Militant groups for #intelligence sharing. On the other hand, #Meitei Militant groups have killed #IA soldiers few years back. In June'23, IA had apprehended the responsible 12 militants of the Meitei militant group..

11/n. Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (#KYKL). The group was involved in several attacks on #IA, including the ambush of 6 #Dogra unit in 2015. Ths groups have infiltrated from #Myanmar. So as you can see, the narrative is not black & white. 2) In one hand, we have #Kuki militants who..

12/n. operates within #Indian territory, & shares #intelligence with #IA, on the other hand, thr are #Meitei Militant groups who operates from #Myanmar & had killed, & attacked our #Soldiers multiple times in the past. So what #Indian govt is doing is the fair balancing act to..

13/n. avoid further bloodshed & avoiding a all out #insurgency in #MANIPUR btwn all the factions.
Taking 1 sided actions not only would inconvenience #IA (as intell will dry up from #Kuki groups) bt 10 Kuki MLAs may resign or revolt resulting in the fall of the govt & further..

14/n. instability in the region. #MANIPUR. Similarly, if we tk all out action against #Meiteis thn thr will be further trouble in the #Indo-#Myanmar #Border areas.
So we need to rise abv the b&w narrative of #Kuki are foreign origin & bad, #Meitei are #Hindu & good.

15/n. #Indian #Govt is doing the right thing, by investigating the unfortunate incidents case by case, & punish the culprits. Objectives of #IA is to bring peace & normalcy. Objective of #Manipur #police is to tk up the criminal cases & ensure all responsible are punished.

16/n. #Geopolitically #Indo-#Myanmar border is sensitive & volatile. In the world of #Espionage, it is not new for intelligence agencies to source intell from organised crime groups, traffickers, drug dealers, pimps & prostitutes apart from militant or insurgent groups.

17/n. Thr is ample evidence of foreign hand to the violence, including sm of our partners/friends. Unfortunately, Indian political opposition is busy hobnobbing with foreign agents of regime change for selfish motives. We must condemn violence, especially against women bt..

18/n. we must avoid reading #ManipurViolence from black & white lenses. It has many shades of grey. Let the best ppl handle the situation. Trust #IndianArmy & #Indian #Govt to tk the right decisions & bring normalcy in the region & punish all purpitrators.

End of thread. Plz feel free to add ur thoughts.

. @alpha_defense @TheLegateIN @BellamSwathi @Rajsadasivam74 @Starboy2079 @RealBababanaras @MumbaichaDon @ajeetbharti @dave_dtech.