Map of the Military Situation in #Sudan as of 17:30 CAT 6/21/23.
Green (88.9%) = SAF and allies
Red (8.4%) = RSF and allies
Blue (1.4%) = SPLM-N (al-Hilu)
Black (1.3%) = Non-belligerent (EAF and SLA (al-Nur))
#KeepEyesOnSudan #Khartoum #السودان #الخرطوم
Green (88.9%) = SAF and allies
Red (8.4%) = RSF and allies
Blue (1.4%) = SPLM-N (al-Hilu)
Black (1.3%) = Non-belligerent (EAF and SLA (al-Nur))
#KeepEyesOnSudan #Khartoum #السودان #الخرطوم
Today the SAF repulsed a major RSF attack towards the Engineer Corps. RSF operations are increasing in the direction of all 3 of the SAF operational centers (Armored Corps, Engineer Corps, Army HQ), and they are launching assaults to test for weak spots.
Based on geolocated videos (the blue symbols), the RSF tried to take the Engineer Corps by moving along multiple streets from the South and North simultaneously. The destroyed RSF force is significant, and speaks to an inability to take major positions despite taking minor ones.
The main axis of attack here was definetly from the South, with a very small supporting axis from the North. It's too many videos to post and analyze here in detail, but you can see the geolocations at @mustapro and @Wolltigerhueter directly in their tweets&replies sections.
Previously RSF operations were focused exclusively towards the Armored Corps, but they have recently started gathering a large amount of forces in Burri in the direction of the Army HQ, and have started shelling the area from here.
I don't think this is related to the fire at the General Intelligence Service HQ yesterday. People from the area reported not hearing any sounds of clashes or explosions. I believe it either caught fire accidentally, or the RSF torched it themselves.
I believe it's plausible that the RSF are planning a major assault on one of the 3 SAF centers, and that they are deliberately trying to make it hard for the SAF to predict which of them they will ultimately target by increasing activity around all 3 of them.
The SPLM-N (al-Hilu) have again attacked SAF positions in the region around Kadugli this morning, although it's unknown where precisely. The 3 main pre-2023 rebel factions, al-Hilu, Minni Minnawi, and al-Nur, hold very different ambitions and ideological positions from eachother.
Al-Nur has not involved himself at all with the conflict and hasn't stated his position. He's an idealist and refuses to collaborate with the SAF even against the greater evil of the RSF. (13.131895,24.509050)
Al-Hilu is very militarily ambitious, and attempts to increase his influence in South Kordofan at every opportunity he gets. The attacks near Kadugli will only increase from here on, and he's becoming closer to an open belligerent in the conflict. (10.992526,30.316223)
Minni Minnawi is ambitious not militarily, but diplomatically. He knows the threat the RSF pose, but also doesn't want to end like the West Darfur Governor Khamis Abakar. He supports the SAF in the ways he can, while mostly staying neutral in regards to fighting itself.
Corrections to yesterday's map: Many areas in Omdurman were presented in a misleading way. The low amount of forces of both sides mean that some regions get looted and driven through by the RSF at times, even though they're unable to set up permanent checkpoints or positions.
I've decided to color these areas as blank instead of red to better display their status. It's misleading to color them the same way areas with actual RSF positions are colored. If there are still areas that are colored incorrectly, please DM me about them and I will fix it.
For better understanding of changes, corrections and adjustments I make to the map without posting about them here, I've decided to start a second account exclusively focused on every minor adjustment I make: @sudanmap
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