Analysis of the Military Situation in #Sudan as of 15:30 CAT 6/20/23.
Green (88.9%) = SAF and allies
Red (8.4%) = RSF and allies
Blue (1.4%) = SPLM-N (al-Hilu)
Black (1.3%) = Non-belligerent (EAF and SLA (al-Nur))
#KeepEyesOnSudan #Khartoum #السودان #الخرطوم
Green (88.9%) = SAF and allies
Red (8.4%) = RSF and allies
Blue (1.4%) = SPLM-N (al-Hilu)
Black (1.3%) = Non-belligerent (EAF and SLA (al-Nur))
#KeepEyesOnSudan #Khartoum #السودان #الخرطوم
After more than 2 months since fighting started, we are still in the opening phase of the war. Neither side has since the first week taken any decisive positions, but the RSF have shown clear momentum and taken several smaller areas in Khartoum (1-5) and Darfur (6-7).
It doesn't look like the SAF will be able to reverse this trend in the near future. They've tried adapting and using new strategies as shown during their unprecedented offensive last week, but failed to hold the territory captured long-term.
On average, the RSF take 11,8 days to take one SAF base in Khartoum. As the SAF have 7 bases left (1-7), the RSF will take 82.6 more days (2.7 months) until fully capturing Khartoum. The rate at which the past bases fell is surprisingly consistent.
However, these numbers assume that the RSF will be able to take major SAF bases like the Armored Corps (2), the Corps of Engineers (3), or the Army HQ (5) the same way they've been able to take minor bases. Ability to do so hasn't been observed yet.
Currently, the SAF control 88.9% of the country, the RSF control 8.4%, and other groups control 2.7%. Compared to 22nd April 2023, the RSF have increased their control by 1%(¹) of the country. Based on this, they will take 5245.1 days (143.7 years) to take the entire country.
Note: As we are still in the opening phase of the war, it would be unwise to make strong assumptions about the length and direction of the conflict based on these numbers. The speed at which territory is lost/gained could increase or reverse following major upcoming battles.
Fun fact: The time a snail would take to cross Sudan from the most Southern to the most Northern point is 42104.2 days (115.4 years).
(¹) This is derived from their conquest of Kutum (adding 17757km²), their conquest of Um Dafuq (adding 8910km²), and their loss of the road to Kadugli (losing 20508km²).
As the current ceasefire is about to expire tomorrow, I believe the RSF will conduct another offensive soon. Possible targets include Dardog Base, the Police Reserve HQ, the Armored Corps, or the Signal Weapon.
Note: This ceasefire was suspiciously quiet in regards to fighting, almost as if both sides accidentally kept it unlike the previous 59 ceasefires.
In total, I believe a diplomatic resolution is unlikely until the RSF either take Khartoum, which could take 3-6 months, or until they are pushed out, which I believe could take at least 6 months. A military resolution would probably take 2-5 years.
You can view the full interactive map here: google.com
Update: According to someone who recently travelled the road from Geifil to Abu-Halima, there were several RSF checkpoints along the entire road. As there were no fighting reports, I believe the SAF slowly withdrew over the past 2 weeks as the position became unsustainable.
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