We're at a macroeconomic crossroad.
Stocks pumped while USDT is being victimised.
I will unmask the boom or bust Tradfi + Crypto dynamics. 🧵👇
Stocks pumped while USDT is being victimised.
I will unmask the boom or bust Tradfi + Crypto dynamics. 🧵👇
1/ Macro Pulse Update 18.06.2023
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Fed Holds Rates, Eyes Inflation
3️⃣ Crypto Prices Decouple from Stocks
4️⃣ Tether De-peg
5️⃣ Global Insights: Shattering Negativity, Embrace Optimism
6️⃣ Banking Crisis and Looming Risks
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Fed Holds Rates, Eyes Inflation
3️⃣ Crypto Prices Decouple from Stocks
4️⃣ Tether De-peg
5️⃣ Global Insights: Shattering Negativity, Embrace Optimism
6️⃣ Banking Crisis and Looming Risks
2/ From the Fed's cautious approach to rising inflation and its impact on interest rates, to the divergence between crypto and traditional stock markets, investors are navigating through a dynamic landscape.
3/ 1️⃣ Macro events for the week
4/ 2️⃣ Fed Holds Rates, Eyes Inflation 🟡
In a widely anticipated move, the Fed decided to keep its interest rate, unchanged at 5-5.25%. This marks a significant shift from the 10 consecutive rate hikes we've seen in recent times.
In a widely anticipated move, the Fed decided to keep its interest rate, unchanged at 5-5.25%. This marks a significant shift from the 10 consecutive rate hikes we've seen in recent times.
5/ While the Fed's statement and press conference maintained a cautious stance, hinting at potential future rate hikes if inflation persists, the decision to hold rates steady comes as a relief.
6/ According to the Fed's projections, interest rates could still rise to around 5.6%, indicating the possibility of two more rate hikes before the year ends.
7/ However, historically, we have not seen any hikes after a pause.
The stock market reacted with an initial dip, concerned about the prospect of future rate increases.
However, it got back to pace, with a slight upward trajectory.
The stock market reacted with an initial dip, concerned about the prospect of future rate increases.
However, it got back to pace, with a slight upward trajectory.
8/ 3️⃣ Crypto Prices Decouple from Stocks 🔴
Crypto stumbled while traditional stock markets continued their upward momentum.
BTC, ETH recorded declines of approximately 8% and 10% respectively, as regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. weighed on crypto prices and investor sentiment.
Crypto stumbled while traditional stock markets continued their upward momentum.
BTC, ETH recorded declines of approximately 8% and 10% respectively, as regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. weighed on crypto prices and investor sentiment.
9/ Conversely, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new 12-month highs.
This surge can be attributed to the robust performance of semiconductor and software industries, driven by the growing interest in artificial intelligence.
This surge can be attributed to the robust performance of semiconductor and software industries, driven by the growing interest in artificial intelligence.
10/ 4️⃣ Tether De-peg 🔴
USDT the world's largest stablecoin at $83b market cap depegged, causing a sudden drop in crypto prices.
While DAI overtakes BUSD as the top 3 stablecoin.
USDT the world's largest stablecoin at $83b market cap depegged, causing a sudden drop in crypto prices.
While DAI overtakes BUSD as the top 3 stablecoin.
11/ There was an imbalance in liquidity pools, particularly on Curve, resulting from a significant sell-off of USDT, pushing its price temporarily below the 1:1 USD peg.
12/ 4️⃣ Global Insights: Shattering Negativity, Embrace Optimism 🟢
• Europe's Economy Thrived Despite the Ukraine War
• Resilience of North American and European Economies
• Business Adapted to Remote Work
• Inflation Peaked and Declined
• Job Markets Remained Strong
• Europe's Economy Thrived Despite the Ukraine War
• Resilience of North American and European Economies
• Business Adapted to Remote Work
• Inflation Peaked and Declined
• Job Markets Remained Strong
13/
• Borrowing Costs Remain Low
• Supply Chain Disruption Reversed Quickly
• Vaccines and Return to Normalcy
• Borrowing Costs Remain Low
• Supply Chain Disruption Reversed Quickly
• Vaccines and Return to Normalcy
14/ 5️⃣ Banking Crisis and Looming Risks 🔴
• Banks in the US are selling performing commercial property loans due to two main reasons: demand for the securities backed by these loans has fallen, high office vacancy rates
• Banks in the US are selling performing commercial property loans due to two main reasons: demand for the securities backed by these loans has fallen, high office vacancy rates
15/
• Retail and hospitality properties face similar problems with higher debt rates than office buildings.
• Savers have switched from banks to money market funds
• Retail and hospitality properties face similar problems with higher debt rates than office buildings.
• Savers have switched from banks to money market funds
16/
• The US Treasury is expected to issue a large number of securities in the coming months, which could lead to higher interest rates.
• The Fed plan to sell assets after expanding its balance sheet in response to banks failure.
• The US Treasury is expected to issue a large number of securities in the coming months, which could lead to higher interest rates.
• The Fed plan to sell assets after expanding its balance sheet in response to banks failure.
17/ If you want to have an unparalleled edge to crypto alpha and macro views, then I’ve got it here for you.
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20/ I hope you've found this thread helpful.
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