Full strategic analysis of the situation in Khartoum, as of 1:22AM 3rd June 2023.
I started mapping the conflict in Sudan around a week after it started, and at the time the SAF were still in a mostly vulnerable state. The Army HQ was under attack by the RSF (formerly known as the Janjaweed) constantly,
and the militia was able to freely move through the capital. Slowly however, they were able to fight back and managed to bring the situation around the Army HQ back under their control in a major assault away from the Army HQ and towards the central RSF base of operations,
the Presidential Palace, which they managed to place under partial siege. Around 3 weeks after the conflict started, the SAF now possessed full initiative, but had been unable to capture the Presidential Palace or to move significantly towards it.
They changed their strategy to instead cut all RSF controlled bridges over the Nile to place the entire city under siege, namely this was a single bridge named Shambat bridge, connecting Omdurman to Bahri.
As they had been unable to gain ground during skirmishes on the Western side of the bridge, they attempted a more ambitious attack from the NE. Several SAF tanks and armored vehicles can be seen advancing South in geolocated footage of that day, but they weren't successful.
Instead, for whatever unknown reason, the RSF were able to immediately counterattack and managed to seize large areas in the North of Bahri, capturing the Eastern side of the previously fully SAF controlled Al-Halfaya bridge.
The RSF, with their new found position of initiative, could have only chosen one possible goal. They needed to permanently secure their supplylines to the city, which meant either fully capturing Al-Halfaya bridge,
or to capture the major Al-Mohandiseen military base hosting both the Corps of Engineers and the Military Hospital. Choosing Al-Halfaya Bridge meant attacking an easy target, the RSF would need to take Al-Manara intersection and they would've already secured their supply lines.
However, this means it would be equally easy to retake for the SAF once they regain initiative, and the RSF would be in the exact same problem they were in just moments earlier.
The more permanent solution to their strategic issue was thus to capture the Al-Mohandiseen military base, however this was more or less impossible head-on. It's well known how fortified the base is to residents of Omdurman, along with the Armored Corps and the Army HQ,
it's one of the central three SAF bases in Khartoum. However, it was also vulnerable due to being completely surrounded by RSF forces except for 2 bridges over to Khartoum, and the RSF clearly had confidence in their capabilities.
Instead of taking the military base by force which they had been unable to, the RSF decided to try to besiege it. The Al-Mohandiseen Base is connected to the rest of the SAF's holdings in Khartoum only via Army Road, which was under heavy SAF control.
The RSF tried to take it by going through the large Arabic Market area, but failed multiple times. Instead then, they decided to attack the Strategic Corps from the South, by taking the Air Defense HQ, and from there the Currency Printing Press and Khartoum Industrial Area.
The Air Defense HQ had always been in a more vulnerable position, fortified despite predominently consisting of offices, and almost completely surrounded by RSF controlled areas, in fact only being connected back towards the main SAF holdings by a single, small corridor,
which was fully evicted of people by the SAF early on in the conflict and had been completely fortified. The videos of the day it fell, around maybe 2 weeks ago, show the RSF almost completely overrunning it.
The SAF almost immediately withdrew from the entire area leading up to it, completely retreating to the Armored Corps itself.
Immediately following this victory, the RSF started an offensive focused on taking the industrial area. Sources on the ground reported to me in detail the RSF attacks, which slowly seized the entire area over the following week.
The RSF then attempted to seize all areas North of the Armored Corps directly in a large offensive a week ago, but failed.
They had thus not fully built a large base from which to assault the Strategic Corps, but had still achieved access to Al-Ghaba Ave, the singular road leading up to their target.
On 30th May 2023, the RSF attacked over Al-Ghaba Ave towards the Strategic Corps, and successfully took it over, immediately following this, they took control of the Western section of Army Road. They have now cut the connection between the Armored Corps, the Army HQ,
and the Al-Mohandiseen Military Base.
They are however not in an invincible position. There has been a large build up of defenses and forces West of Al-Halfaya and Shambat bridge by both sides, and the RSF have also mysteriously withdrawn from large areas in Omdurman.
It's possible that things could soon happen in these directions, and the RSF might have to put off their offensive on Al-Mohandiseen Base for a few more weeks.
This analysis is available in Arabic on Facebook at m.facebook.com
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