I think the advantage has shifted in favor of the SAF over the past week and they have regained control of the situation in Khartoum. I will explain why with military strategy and maps.
Green = SAF, red = RSF
6/5/23
#KeepEyesOnSudan #جيش_واحد_شعب_واحد #الخرطوم #السودان
Green = SAF, red = RSF
6/5/23
#KeepEyesOnSudan #جيش_واحد_شعب_واحد #الخرطوم #السودان
Note for viewing this map: RSF and SAF do not necessarily fight from fixed positions or across clear frontlines, which is why I depict control in 2 different shades: The darker shade indicates fixed positions, and the lighter shade indicates the rough area each side patrols.
Over the past week with the help of the Abu Tira Police Force, the SAF have ended all RSF attacks on the General Command (1) and pushed them back to the Presidential Palace (2), which is now under partial siege.
To supply the besieged Presidential Palace, RSF has to make a long trip (shown here in purple) around the SAF territory at the General Command. SAF has so far failed to cut this supply line despite efforts tonight at Manshia bridge (3), and last week at Shambat bridge (4).
People living in East Nile have confirmed that the rumors of SAF controlling Manshia bridge are false, which gives me the impression that SAF will not succeed in cutting the supply line soon.
Nevertheless, whereas the Presidential Palace is besieged, the area of the General Command is in a very strong position. RSF has attempted to attack Kobar (5) on Thursday but was completely repelled.
I think in the long term the SAF have recovered from the initial shock and fully regained the initiative. With their new dominant position they could attempt either another attack on Shambat or Manshia bridge, or another attack directly on the Presidential Palace.
If they manage to take even 1 of these 3 objectives, RSF would inevitably have to leave the capital and take all their loot back to Dafur, where they could continue a guerilla campaign until a peace is reached.
Note on the data used to make this map: The information has been collected by myself using geolocated footage, reports from people living in the different parts of the city, and both SAF and RSF reports, neither of which I trust blindly.
Update on today's fighting: 2 local sources report SAF advances (6) in the South of Khartoum over the past few days.
As always if you live in an area that you think is represented incorrectly on the map, you can DM me information so that I can correct the map. For safety reasons I will not publish your name or where you live. You can view the full map here: google.com
@yobraorina The army is making progress and has gained the dominant position after recovering from the shock with the help of the Abu Tira police force
Update: A RSF sniper position has been reported to me on top of a house at the junction of Badr street with Abdalla Al-Tayeb street. The coordinates: 15.571075,32.565068
Correction: Earlier I mention SAF advances in South Khartoum. After additional reports from people in the area these are smaller than I initially posted, reaching into Arkaweet but not to Madani street.
Update: Someone living in the area has drawn this map. Red = SAF, green = RSF (the colors are switched compared to my map). The SAF receive RSF soldiers in the white box which acts as a killzone, while pushing from West and East. Al Mk Nemer bridge in purple is under no control
A second citizen has confirmed fighting this morning in the circled area.
Note: I think what could be helpful to some people is if someone could make maps showing where in Khartoum electricity and water is unavailable
Update: 2 additional supply lines have been noted. The first (7) going from Sabaloga to East Nile, and the second (8) going from Gedid Industrial City to the Airport. Both supply the RSF troops in the Presidential Palace.
Update: RSF presence has been reported in this area by 3 people living in Gabra
جاري تحميل الاقتراحات...