14 thoughts on predicting future trends:
Rule of thumb:
If it's a talking point on Reddit, you're probably early.
If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late.
If it's a talking point on Reddit, you're probably early.
If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late.
Study the directional arrows of progress.
Every time computers get more powerful, smaller, and closer to our bodies.
You can use the trendlines to predict what's next.
(Hint - it's gonna be smaller, more powerful, and nearer your brain)
Every time computers get more powerful, smaller, and closer to our bodies.
You can use the trendlines to predict what's next.
(Hint - it's gonna be smaller, more powerful, and nearer your brain)
If you wait for the media to inform you, you'll either be wrong or too late.
Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 - but it wasn't acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later.
Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 - but it wasn't acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later.
If the media is building something or someone up - be ready for them to tear it down.
If you're over the age of 25, assume your initial reactions about new trends are wrong until you've spoken to younger people.
"What the smartest people do on the weekends is what everyone else will do during the week in 10 years" - @cdixon
1. Get smart nerds as friends
2. Ask them what they're doing this weekend
1. Get smart nerds as friends
2. Ask them what they're doing this weekend
Avoid the Overton Window.
1. Don't judge past figures by what is acceptable today
2. Don't judge current figures by what is acceptable today
3. Instead, think from first principles
It's unlikely you're in the first-ever generation where the Overton Window doesn't update.
1. Don't judge past figures by what is acceptable today
2. Don't judge current figures by what is acceptable today
3. Instead, think from first principles
It's unlikely you're in the first-ever generation where the Overton Window doesn't update.
Don't rely on algorithms.
Have specific accounts you visit manually or create Twitter lists.
If they're predicting unpopular future topics, it's unlikely an algorithm will be rewarding the content.
Have specific accounts you visit manually or create Twitter lists.
If they're predicting unpopular future topics, it's unlikely an algorithm will be rewarding the content.
Mainstream topics are 6-12 months downstream of memes on Twitter, Reddit, and 4chan.
Follow the memes.
Follow the memes.
Avoid just reading about new trends. Get your hands dirty with hours of practical time.
You'll spot things months and years before journalists as a result.
You'll spot things months and years before journalists as a result.
Don't follow influencers.
Follow the people that influence the influencers.
Get root access to the source materials.
Follow the people that influence the influencers.
Get root access to the source materials.
If you're mocked for what you're working on, it doesn't mean it's the future.
But if nobody mocks you, it's not the future.
But if nobody mocks you, it's not the future.
Change your geography.
The future isn't evenly distributed.
You can get on a 6-hour flight and move 6 years ahead.
If you can't move your physical geography, move your digital geography.
The future isn't evenly distributed.
You can get on a 6-hour flight and move 6 years ahead.
If you can't move your physical geography, move your digital geography.
If your smart friends tell you about a new idea, don't wait to understand it before you put a small bet on it.
If you wait for society to educate you, you'll be too late.
If you wait for society to educate you, you'll be too late.
PS. If you enjoyed this, then you should join 25K+ people in my Clouds & Dirt newsletter.
Clouds = Theory / Big Questions
Dirt = Technology / Tactics
clouds-and-dirt.beehiiv.com
Clouds = Theory / Big Questions
Dirt = Technology / Tactics
clouds-and-dirt.beehiiv.com
جاري تحميل الاقتراحات...