To put it this way: in no prior years of entire decade did you need to refresh knowledge on financial crisis events more than for this and next year. The chances of something going down are now highest, which means now is the time to research history well in depth to refresh.
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My view is that chances of 1930 style bank crunch event are significant. Variables aligning for it are in quite high overlap.
Depression style crisis is very probable at this point the question perhaps only is if there will also be bank liquidity/trust crisis as well.
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Depression style crisis is very probable at this point the question perhaps only is if there will also be bank liquidity/trust crisis as well.
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Deflation of global asset prices is done deal at this point. So you have to ask yourself, where does this lead to? Can banks shrug off RE, equities and bond price crashes without facing balance sheet weakness?
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If answer is no then what is needed to re-inflate those bubbles and banks balance sheets? We know the answer to that. So until there is a influx of QE liquidity we are moving closer and closer to something snapping. And banks are the most likely scenario.
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The question would be what magnitude of event is in the cards. One thing that seems as highly likely is walking slowly into depressionary environment on asset price side is highly likely. Without help of QE in my view there is low chance for #stocks or bonds to recover.
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Just a personal view but positioning over past half year has been and will remain swing short $SPY and RE indexes. Looking for larger move down on equity indexes.
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Keep this in mind: Once #FED is done hiking and many will think "this is now bottom in SP500" what will respond next is unemployment data spike. So market will have to deal with new fresh bag of problems to price in. There wont be any long term bottom yet probably.
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The valid arguments on why we are likely to see much lower stocks and real estate or any asset prices are significantly stacked on the side of "highly likely". If you spend careful analysis and take your time being objective it is what it is.
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Markets over past year have been pricing in major global policy shifts and liquidity drainage.
What has not been priced in is actual economic damage that will result as of it as that is only yet to show. This is why "we have not priced it in yet" is the play.
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What has not been priced in is actual economic damage that will result as of it as that is only yet to show. This is why "we have not priced it in yet" is the play.
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It's a pass-the-torch setup. From one problem to another to another Chronologically in order: Inflation-QT-bank liquidity issues-economic downturn-Asian geopol crisis-?-?-...).
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Remember 1930s bank lockdowns style events would also fit thematically in current environment. Policy makers want deflation so chances are they might just help along to achieve banking crunch to limit spending and implement lockdowns with new flavor.
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