Great news for all fans of EU enlargement! Great news for Ukraine, Serbia, Abania and all other candidates for accession to the European Union! If accesion negotiations continue at the current pace, these countries could join the EU in a less than 150 years!
Take the example of Montenegro. If the current pace of accession negotiations can be kept up, Montenegro could join the EU just 112 years from now. More precisely: Montenegro could become a member of the EU in January 2134. (But only in the second half of January, of course).
How can this dizzying pace be explained? Well, quite easy actually. Membership negotiations with Montenegro began in June 2012, so a decade has passed since then. (126 months, if you include the current one).
During this decade of negotiations with the EU-Commission, Montenegro has provisionally closed 3 out of 35 negotiation chapters:
neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu
neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu
3 chapters in 126 months means the EU Commission and Montenegro needed an average of 42 months to (provisionally) conclude one negotiation chapter. If they maintain the current speed, they will need merely 1344 months (meaining 112 years) for the remaining 32 chapters.
There is more good news: If North Macedonia and Albania negotiate at the same pace as Montenegro and start now, both could be welcomed as members of the EU family only 122.5 years from today. (In July 2144. Again, probably second half of the month, as we should not rush things).
For Serbia, it might take a bit longer, as the country has only closed two chapters so far. So what? A decade more or less makes no difference. The dinosaurs lived on earth for 170 million years. What are 122.5 years compared to that?
This is why the accession candidates should stop complaining and just do their homework. Don't forget: If you continue the reform process, your countries may join the EU in less than two centuries. Who would refuse such an offer?
Some say the war against Ukraine is a turning point for EU enlargement. Is it? Things will move faster from now on, they suppose. Will they? Will actions follow words? Or will we soon see that there still is zero appetite for new full-fledged members of the EU in the EU?
German Chancellor Scholz says he is in favor of enlargement, but only after the EU reforms (means: abolishes) its unanimity principle. Apart from the fact that veto rights are an important tool for the cohesion of the EU, it is questionable whether such a reform will ever happen.
That's why Olaf Scholz's conditional "yes" can also be understood as a clear "no". On the other hand, Apostle Romano once wrote in his letter to the Thessalonians (whether first or second, I forgot): “Thou shalt belong to the EU.” Amen.
Of course, it is fine to still believe that EU membership is a realistic option in the foreseeable future and that the current negotiation process works just fine. Freedom of belief is a precious good. It is part of democratic constitutions for good reasons.
But the growing number of enlargement agnostics and enlargement atheists might want to think seriously about other ideas. How to revive the integration process in the Western Balkans and make it reform-driven again? How can the EU regain influence in the region?
The most promising idea I heard of in the last couple of years is this one: The negotiation process towards full membership continues, but with a new interim goal, which is realistic and achievable and thus can unlock reform-potential: The offer is to enter the single market.
It would give citizens of the joining countries all rights that citizens of EU countries have, with some exceptions. (No participation in the elections for the EU parliament, no commissioner in Brussels, no veto right in the EU. But do people care about this?
Happy to hear more and more people talking about this idea. Recently, an influential European politician said in an off-record meeting: “I think this is the only way forward”, adding that “in the corridors of Brussels, this idea is being talked about more and more.”
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