Why does Messi has such good advanced statistics this season ?
A thread
A thread
This season, I posted my usual graphs that I always did. Sometimes mixing goals and xA, xT from passes and xT from carries, etc… A few of those showed Messi at the top or at least among the best which can look surprising considering what the general opinion agrees on. But why ?
Firstly, the most interesting information to pick up is that Messi racked up progressive passes at a higher rate this season (10.2) than in any of his last 4 Barcelona seasons. A surprising statistic, but there are clear arguments to explain this.
Generally, it’s easier to make progressive passes (as per the FBref definition) when playing deeper. This season, the top 15 progressive passes p90 leaders (excl. Messi) are all deep midfielders like Kimmich or defenders like Alba, showing a clear pattern.
This season, Messi has more touches of the ball in the defensive and midfield third combined (49.2) than last season (43.4). However, he has way less touches in the attacking third (39.0 vs 51.9). This drastic change of role makes him more apt to playing progressive passes.
A few months ago, @GoalAnalysis made this great viz showing Messi’s drop-off. We can pick up interesting information from it.
From what we already discussed, we can explain the rise in “passing” and decrease in “receiving” from the change in role. For “facilitating”, it’s mainly because Messi’s main receiver went from Alba to Mbappé. The former being a crosser while the latter is a shooter.
Mbappé being Messi’s most important receiver can also be an explanation on why Messi has slightly more xA this season than last season (0.33 vs 0.32). There’s barely any change but it can at least show why it hasn’t gone down unlike Messi’s overall reputation.
Now, the last reason why his statistics look so good is that… He’s Messi, his technique and passing ability is the same as before. The main differences is the decrease in intensity (less dribbles and pace) and the bad/unlucky finishing (less goals than expected).
To conclude, statistics without context are highly influenced by role, it’s the reason why Messi has more progressive passes but less shots. Fans also exaggerate players’ drop in form as they don’t take circumstances into account, Messi’s ability isn’t much worse than before.
The problem with talking about Messi and Ronaldo is that fans are so much entitled to agree with what they want to be true and disagree when it’s the opposite. I only did this for the 10% of my followers who can appreciate/critic this thread without being too affected by biases.
Obviously like always, Messi fans will mass retweet while Ronaldo fans will insult in quotes, it’s just what happens every time.
This is why I will barely pay attention to most of the replies.
This is why I will barely pay attention to most of the replies.
In March, I wrote a thread titled “how to interpret data”. Today, I applied the same concept with the example of Messi. I encourage you to check the original thread.
Data from FBref
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