Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.7(9.7) vs 6.9
Armor 42(12.4) vs 12.2
Tanks 43.2(22.2) vs 15.3
Artillery 15.4(4.6) vs 4
Aircraft 8.1(2.1) vs 16.3
Helicopters 15.2(4.5) vs 8.3
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.7(9.7) vs 6.9
Armor 42(12.4) vs 12.2
Tanks 43.2(22.2) vs 15.3
Artillery 15.4(4.6) vs 4
Aircraft 8.1(2.1) vs 16.3
Helicopters 15.2(4.5) vs 8.3
Scale of claims vs observations
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 28.2 vs 6.9 (4.1x)
Armor + Tanks 75.7 vs 13 (5.8x)
Artillery 100+ vs 4 (25x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 16.3 (6.1x)
Helicopter 100+ vs 8.3 (12x)
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 28.2 vs 6.9 (4.1x)
Armor + Tanks 75.7 vs 13 (5.8x)
Artillery 100+ vs 4 (25x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 16.3 (6.1x)
Helicopter 100+ vs 8.3 (12x)
Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 50 vs 35.7 (1.4x)
Armor 80.3 vs 42 (1.9x)
Tanks 78.2 vs 43.2 (1.8x)
Artillery 48.8 vs 15.4 (3.2x)
Aircraft 57.7 vs 8.1 (7.1x)
Helicopters 61.5 vs 15.2 (4x)
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 50 vs 35.7 (1.4x)
Armor 80.3 vs 42 (1.9x)
Tanks 78.2 vs 43.2 (1.8x)
Artillery 48.8 vs 15.4 (3.2x)
Aircraft 57.7 vs 8.1 (7.1x)
Helicopters 61.5 vs 15.2 (4x)
Changes this week
Pentagon Loss estimates
The Pentagon gave rough estimates for Russian equipment losses for the first time
Here is how the Pentagon estimates relate to the OSINT numbers
Pentagon Loss estimates
The Pentagon gave rough estimates for Russian equipment losses for the first time
Here is how the Pentagon estimates relate to the OSINT numbers
Russian Personnel
The Russian BTG count within Ukraine was raised from 106 to 110 by US defense officials, which results in an assumed increase in Russian personnel and equipment, as set out in the explanatory notes at the end of the thread
The Russian BTG count within Ukraine was raised from 106 to 110 by US defense officials, which results in an assumed increase in Russian personnel and equipment, as set out in the explanatory notes at the end of the thread
Ukrainian Personnel
After hearing President Zelensky claim last week that Ukraine has 700,000 people fighting for it, an article came out that included more detail on force structure. Thanks to @olelyse12 for bringing the article to my attention.
zn.ua
After hearing President Zelensky claim last week that Ukraine has 700,000 people fighting for it, an article came out that included more detail on force structure. Thanks to @olelyse12 for bringing the article to my attention.
zn.ua
Ukrainian Personnel
“Currently, the Troo forces number 110,000, the Armed Forces 550,000, and other law enforcement agencies about 200,000” – Taras Chmut, head of an organization heavily involved in equipping new troops
“Currently, the Troo forces number 110,000, the Armed Forces 550,000, and other law enforcement agencies about 200,000” – Taras Chmut, head of an organization heavily involved in equipping new troops
Ukrainian Personnel
“It is not "armor" and helmets that are important for the state, the main thing is to win the battle. And this requires artillery, ammunition, air defense and anti-tank weapons”
“It is not "armor" and helmets that are important for the state, the main thing is to win the battle. And this requires artillery, ammunition, air defense and anti-tank weapons”
But that now: “procurement is in full swing, and we receive 30,000 to 40,000 armor a month. The same amount was contracted by the ministry, plus a million sets of uniforms.”
Ukrainian Personnel
I have previously written about the idea that individual equipment may be indicative of new personnel.
I have previously written about the idea that individual equipment may be indicative of new personnel.
Ukrainian Personnel
I reviewed the announced military aid to determine the number of helmets, uniforms and pieces of armor given to Ukraine. Many countries did not specify numbers of items, but it has been >46,000 armored vests and >151,000 helmets
en.m.wikipedia.org
I reviewed the announced military aid to determine the number of helmets, uniforms and pieces of armor given to Ukraine. Many countries did not specify numbers of items, but it has been >46,000 armored vests and >151,000 helmets
en.m.wikipedia.org
Ukrainian Personnel
There have also been various reports of large scale Ukrainian training occurring
Territorial Defense Unit infantry
Mechanized Infantry
forbes.com
Special Operations
There have also been various reports of large scale Ukrainian training occurring
Territorial Defense Unit infantry
Mechanized Infantry
forbes.com
Special Operations
Ukrainian Personnel
The estimates on Russian language Telegram, for what they are worth, is the formation of the equivalent of 33 BTGs by Ukraine
The estimates on Russian language Telegram, for what they are worth, is the formation of the equivalent of 33 BTGs by Ukraine
Ukrainian Personnel
I will use 550,000 as the number of Ukrainian personnel. This considers ~300,000 as a base as of March 26, the statements of Zelensky and Chmut, the donation of more than 150,000 helmets and the idea that some personnel may be in training or under-equipped
I will use 550,000 as the number of Ukrainian personnel. This considers ~300,000 as a base as of March 26, the statements of Zelensky and Chmut, the donation of more than 150,000 helmets and the idea that some personnel may be in training or under-equipped
Ukrainian Personnel
I am not counting the additional 110,000 territorial personnel and 200,000 law enforcement personnel referred to by Mr Chmut as combat personnel for the time being
I am not counting the additional 110,000 territorial personnel and 200,000 law enforcement personnel referred to by Mr Chmut as combat personnel for the time being
Russian tanks
I note for interest sake the ongoing discussion about Russia beginning to draw its old T-72B and even older T-62 tanks out of storage. There has been discussion about what this implies for their useable inventory of more modern tanks. See
I note for interest sake the ongoing discussion about Russia beginning to draw its old T-72B and even older T-62 tanks out of storage. There has been discussion about what this implies for their useable inventory of more modern tanks. See
Russian tanks
A similar consideration of tank inventories
A similar consideration of tank inventories
Russian tanks
I have noted the uncertainty over what proportion of Russian tanks ‘in storage’ for months, which is why I have not included them in the numbers. If you look at the pages under Major Source 5, you can see some of the ‘in storage’ figures
I have noted the uncertainty over what proportion of Russian tanks ‘in storage’ for months, which is why I have not included them in the numbers. If you look at the pages under Major Source 5, you can see some of the ‘in storage’ figures
Russian tanks
I suspect that the number of modern tanks that Russia could draw from storage is greater than these threads suggest, it may be a matter of speed of deployment, location of storage depots, holding advanced tanks in reserve or limited availability of certain parts
I suspect that the number of modern tanks that Russia could draw from storage is greater than these threads suggest, it may be a matter of speed of deployment, location of storage depots, holding advanced tanks in reserve or limited availability of certain parts
Russian tanks
Note that an upgraded version of the T-62 has been developed, but reports are that the T-62s are being pushed into service without such a complete upgrade
Note that an upgraded version of the T-62 has been developed, but reports are that the T-62s are being pushed into service without such a complete upgrade
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool.
If you fail to make reference to open source evidence, you wind up with analysis like this
Interpretation
Some sources update and data was collected at May 29, 10 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses.
Some sources update and data was collected at May 29, 10 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses.
Perform your own evaluation of the reliability of any information source you come across. I have tried to use reliable sources, but they do represent a range of reliability. Note that I used my own judgment in choosing among the personnel loss estimates
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
These numbers do not reflect motivation, leadership, terrain, weather, support of allies. These equipment numbers also do not reflect levels of crew training, equipment readiness or maintenance quality. All of which will have significant impact beyond what these numbers can show.
Major Sources 01/
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
Major Sources 2/
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
youtube.com
Daily updates after May 6
youtube.com
Daily updates prior to May 6
rutube.ru
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
youtube.com
Daily updates after May 6
youtube.com
Daily updates prior to May 6
rutube.ru
Major Sources 3/
OSINT equipment loss observations
@oryxspioenkop
RU losses: oryxspioenkop.com
UKR losses: oryxspioenkop.com
Heavy equipment deliveries to Ukraine
oryxspioenkop.com
OSINT source often has a backlog of 200-300 items
OSINT equipment loss observations
@oryxspioenkop
RU losses: oryxspioenkop.com
UKR losses: oryxspioenkop.com
Heavy equipment deliveries to Ukraine
oryxspioenkop.com
OSINT source often has a backlog of 200-300 items
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
By Stijn Mitzer and Jakub Janovsky in collaboration with Joost Oliemans, Kemal , Dan , and n...
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
By Stijn Mitzer and Jakub Janovsky in collaboration with Joost Oliemans, Kemal , Dan , and naal...
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…
Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine
By Joost Oliemans and Stijn Mitzer The following list attempts to keep track of heavy military equ...
Major Sources 4/
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
Major Sources 5/
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
Updates
Updates on the general force repositioning and equipment resupply efforts were getting to be too big to include in one thread. Please read them here. They form the backdrop within which personnel losses are considered
May 29 Updates
Updates on the general force repositioning and equipment resupply efforts were getting to be too big to include in one thread. Please read them here. They form the backdrop within which personnel losses are considered
May 29 Updates
April 17 updates
April 24 updates
May 1 updates
May 8 updates
May 15 Updates
May 22 Updates
April 24 updates
May 1 updates
May 8 updates
May 15 Updates
May 22 Updates
Attempts to correct for known Errors
There are many challenges in counting losses of equipment. Here is an explanation of some of those challenges, along with attempts to correct for those errors.
There are many challenges in counting losses of equipment. Here is an explanation of some of those challenges, along with attempts to correct for those errors.
Russia: Personnel
Personnel is the most complicated and speculated upon loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss.
Russian Personnel 1
Russian Personnel 2
Personnel is the most complicated and speculated upon loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss.
Russian Personnel 1
Russian Personnel 2
Russia: Personnel
The Mar 25 RU admissions set a minimum bound of 5,176 casualties. NATO estimates of 10k-15k KIA. US estimates of 10k KIA ‘conservatively’ on March 30. Ukraine is explicitly using a simple 3:1 wounded:KIA ratio. The admitted Russian ratio is 2.8:1 (Mar 25)
The Mar 25 RU admissions set a minimum bound of 5,176 casualties. NATO estimates of 10k-15k KIA. US estimates of 10k KIA ‘conservatively’ on March 30. Ukraine is explicitly using a simple 3:1 wounded:KIA ratio. The admitted Russian ratio is 2.8:1 (Mar 25)
Russia: Personnel
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it recommended to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate, but I will continue to use 3:1 given expert opinion
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it recommended to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate, but I will continue to use 3:1 given expert opinion
Russia: Personnel
BBC Russia and Mediazona now report that they have confirmed the deaths of 2,622 Russian soldiers via public announcements, which exceeds the official Russian figure
zona.media
BBC Russia and Mediazona now report that they have confirmed the deaths of 2,622 Russian soldiers via public announcements, which exceeds the official Russian figure
zona.media
Russia: Personnel
Kremlin spokesman Peskov also described that Russia has suffered “significant losses” of troops and that it was “huge tragedy” for Russia
Kremlin spokesman Peskov also described that Russia has suffered “significant losses” of troops and that it was “huge tragedy” for Russia
Russia: Personnel
There was an unconfirmed claim that the French intelligence agency estimates Russian losses at up to 28,000 dead.
There was an unconfirmed claim that the French intelligence agency estimates Russian losses at up to 28,000 dead.
Russia: Personnel
UKR claim 121,600 (30,150; 90,450; 1000POW)
121,600/243,375 = 50% cmtd
121,600/900,000 = 13.5% total
My evaluation is 21,500 Russian KIA
OS 87,000 (21,500; x3=64,500; 1000(per UKR))
87,000/243,375 = 35.7% cmtd
87,000/900,000 = 9.7% total
UKR claim 121,600 (30,150; 90,450; 1000POW)
121,600/243,375 = 50% cmtd
121,600/900,000 = 13.5% total
My evaluation is 21,500 Russian KIA
OS 87,000 (21,500; x3=64,500; 1000(per UKR))
87,000/243,375 = 35.7% cmtd
87,000/900,000 = 9.7% total
Ukraine: Personnel
On April 15, President Zelensky admitted to 2,500-3,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 10,000 wounded to set a new minimum bound of 13,000 casualties.
On April 15, President Zelensky admitted to 2,500-3,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 10,000 wounded to set a new minimum bound of 13,000 casualties.
A US official said on March 10 that 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed
cbsnews.com
In mid-April, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and more than 18,000 wounded
nytimes.com
cbsnews.com
In mid-April, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and more than 18,000 wounded
nytimes.com
Ukraine: Personnel
In an interview, President Zelensky said that Ukraine was suffering between 50-100 losses per day in the Donbas region.
In an interview, President Zelensky said that Ukraine was suffering between 50-100 losses per day in the Donbas region.
Ukraine: Personnel
One observer has noted that there has been a decrease in the losses that Ukraine has recently claimed to impose on Russia, and it is suggested by this observer that this may be due a decrease in the intensity of the fighting
One observer has noted that there has been a decrease in the losses that Ukraine has recently claimed to impose on Russia, and it is suggested by this observer that this may be due a decrease in the intensity of the fighting
Ukraine: Personnel
Russia last made a loss claim in its daily briefing of April 16, claiming 23,367 Ukrainian KIA. While they have not provided a total claim since then, they have provided 1 or 2 daily updates that refer to Ukrainian losses. I have added these up to 38,257 KIA
Russia last made a loss claim in its daily briefing of April 16, claiming 23,367 Ukrainian KIA. While they have not provided a total claim since then, they have provided 1 or 2 daily updates that refer to Ukrainian losses. I have added these up to 38,257 KIA
Ukraine: Personnel
RU claim
38,257 KIA and three times that number wounded
155,028 (38,257; 114,771,000; 2000)(KIA; wounded; POW)
155,028/550,000 = 28.2%
My evaluation is 9,000 Ukrainian KIA
OS 38,000 (9,000; x3=27,000; 2000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
38,000/550,000 = 6.9%
RU claim
38,257 KIA and three times that number wounded
155,028 (38,257; 114,771,000; 2000)(KIA; wounded; POW)
155,028/550,000 = 28.2%
My evaluation is 9,000 Ukrainian KIA
OS 38,000 (9,000; x3=27,000; 2000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
38,000/550,000 = 6.9%
Ukraine: Aircraft
RU claim 183/153 = 100+%
OS Photo 25/153 = 16.3%
OS Expert* 70/153 = 45.6%
*‘roughly 55 operational fighter jets’, quoting Dave Deptula, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies nytimes.com
IISS starting point of 125 implies a loss of 70 jets
RU claim 183/153 = 100+%
OS Photo 25/153 = 16.3%
OS Expert* 70/153 = 45.6%
*‘roughly 55 operational fighter jets’, quoting Dave Deptula, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies nytimes.com
IISS starting point of 125 implies a loss of 70 jets
March 19 thread
March 25 thread
April 3 thread
April 10 thread
April 17 thread
April 24 thread
March 25 thread
April 3 thread
April 10 thread
April 17 thread
April 24 thread
May 1 thread
May 8 thread
May 15 thread
May 22 thread
May 8 thread
May 15 thread
May 22 thread
In case you want to play with the OSINT data, here is a link to a data scraper by @mountainherder
@Lee__Drake produces time series graphs and has several other interesting tools for numerical analysis in connection with the war available at this Github page
Explanatory Note 1
Explanatory Note 2
Explanatory Note 3
Thanks to @CrimsonShadowMK for the chat about this
Thanks to @CrimsonShadowMK for the chat about this
Explanatory Note 4
Explanatory Note 5
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