How to interpret data
A thread
A thread
Football statistics got more popular over the last few years. Many fans started using them to prove their points objectively. At the same time they received a fair amount of criticism for various reasons. However, this availability of statistics led to a few problems…
When going on a stat website like FBref, you will see tons of data separated in different categories like shooting, passing, possession, etc… So let’s say you want to prove to your friend that De Bruyne is a great creator, you will go into the passing section.
Then you will take stats like xA, progressive passes and why not even key passes. After that, you will show it to your friend : “look, De Bruyne is a better creator than x because of y creative stat”. However, is it really true ?
You need to go back to the original definition, for example progressive passes. Does having a high number of them necessarily make you a better playmaker ? No, it means that you make passes that move the ball 10 yards from its furthest point in the last 6 actions.
Then you will need to ask yourself, why does KDB has a high number of progressive passes ? Factor where he is receiving the ball, at what frequency, what he is asked to do with it and from where his teammates are receiving from him.
If the team is set up for Cancelo to generally receive from just 8-9 yards forward, De Bruyne will rarely make “progressive passes” for things that are not in his control. But people won’t look further to interpret this exact stat.
An other example is Messi with Alba, the latter liked to make runs to receive from Messi, passes that wouldn’t rack up a high xA value. But now that Messi has moved to PSG, his xA p90 is higher than 20/21, is he suddenly a better final passer or is the scheme simply different ?
This works with everything, even simple goals. First of what is a a player who scores a goal : the last player who touches the ball before it crosses the goal line.
In that case, is player x a better scorer than player y because he happened to follow that definition more times ?
In that case, is player x a better scorer than player y because he happened to follow that definition more times ?
We like to simplify things or make basic adjustments that create even more problems than before. You don’t hold the truth, neither do the data. You are also not more knowledgeable if you say “data = bad”, you are if you know how to interpret it.
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