What does Russian "control" of terrain in #Ukraine mean & what are its limits?
Our team @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats is mapping Russian advances & publishing these daily.
This thread will unpack our methodology & explain how to read these maps.
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Our team @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats is mapping Russian advances & publishing these daily.
This thread will unpack our methodology & explain how to read these maps.
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Good questions are emerging as anti-Russia activity erupts behind the front line / in areas Russian forces "control"
For ex: should maps only show military infrastructure & roads?
Not if you seek to understand maneuver war as Russia is waging it.
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For ex: should maps only show military infrastructure & roads?
Not if you seek to understand maneuver war as Russia is waging it.
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Our @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats map uses a standard military approach to map conventional maneuver war, which is what #Russia is waging
In doctrine, "control" does not mean the complete elimination of resistance in an area. That would mean "clearing" an area (FM 3-90-1)
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In doctrine, "control" does not mean the complete elimination of resistance in an area. That would mean "clearing" an area (FM 3-90-1)
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Mapping conventional maneuver war based doctrine is essential for understanding & evaluating what the Russian military is attempting to do.
Conventional maneuver forces "control" the battlespace differently than counter-insurgency forces would: understandingwar.org
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Conventional maneuver forces "control" the battlespace differently than counter-insurgency forces would: understandingwar.org
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So far, the war in #Ukraine remains a conventional maneuver war. It likely will not stay that way, & we will adjust our approach to mapping when that evolution in the fight occurs.
It will likely occur partially & at different rates, posing an interesting mapping challenge
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It will likely occur partially & at different rates, posing an interesting mapping challenge
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Our @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats map is what we call a "living assessment."
We perform an extensive daily collection effort from public sources & constantly run new data up against our map to determine changes on the ground & what new data says about our past assessment
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We perform an extensive daily collection effort from public sources & constantly run new data up against our map to determine changes on the ground & what new data says about our past assessment
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The collection effort behind our maps poses a range of collection & analytic challenges you'd expect in a war like this.
One self-imposed limitation is we do not collect on Ukrainian military positions except insofar as the front line moves & Russian forces' posture changes
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One self-imposed limitation is we do not collect on Ukrainian military positions except insofar as the front line moves & Russian forces' posture changes
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Our collection effort is postured to detect & respond to changes in the character & conduct of this war, including protracted urban combat & potential anti-Russian insurgency.
Our map will evolve accordingly & we will communicate these changes as they unfold.
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Our map will evolve accordingly & we will communicate these changes as they unfold.
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We welcome the engagement we are receiving on this map & are pleased it has proven so valuable to others.
We encourage media, OSINT folks, & analysts to continue to share thoughts & feedback.
Feedback is vital to all analytic endeavors, especially so in war.
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We encourage media, OSINT folks, & analysts to continue to share thoughts & feedback.
Feedback is vital to all analytic endeavors, especially so in war.
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