If you think you know everything you need to know about the Aug 2020 blast that destroyed half of Beirut - a blast that Human Rights Watch in a recent report calls "one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history" - here are some things that might change your mind
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Did you know that an Oct 2020 FBI report concluded only 552 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded on 4 Aug 2020, a FIFTH of 2,754 tonnes that arrived on a Russian-leased cargo ship in 2013 that was widely assumed from Day One to be the cause of the blast?
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reuters.com
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reuters.com
Did you know all those bags of "NITROPRILL HD" seen in the photos of the Beirut warehouse were NOT blasting agents? The HD means "high density" which is the way NH4NO3 is prilled for FERTILIZER! "Experts" like Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk were wrong to suggest otherwise.
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Did you know chemists STILL don't know why ammonium nitrate - which is NOT classified as an "explosive" - occasionally explodes although they have been studying AN's explosive properties for centuries?
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sciencedirect.com
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sciencedirect.com
Did you know that for the last century the fairly universal opinion based on many small-scale tests as well as 1947 Texas City disaster was that detonation of AN by application of heat was IMPOSSIBLE w/o confinement AND added combustible or contaminating material?
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Did you know that, according to this fairly universal opinion, a fire in a warehouse w/black smoke billowing out its windows for 15 minutes or a supposed "fireworks explosion" that happened 30 seconds before does not qualify as "confinement" & thus would NOT detonate NH4NO3?
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Did you know that 1991 IChemE paper found "Despite the serious hazard posed by AN in a fire, there is NO recorded instance of fire induced explosion for pure ammonium nitrate. Large fire trials on multi-tonne quantities have produced the same result"?
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icheme.org
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icheme.org
Did you know this same 1991 IChemE paper also found
that "ammonium nitrate fertilisers (not necessarily explosive grade prills) will be very insensitive requiring a strong source of initiation (e.g. an adjacent condensed phase detonation) to pose a detonation threat"?
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that "ammonium nitrate fertilisers (not necessarily explosive grade prills) will be very insensitive requiring a strong source of initiation (e.g. an adjacent condensed phase detonation) to pose a detonation threat"?
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Did you know official US Army FM 3-34.214 "Explosives and Demolitions" (July 2007) states "Ammonium nitrate is the least sensitive of military explosives. For successful detonation, it requires a booster charge" of, e.g., Composition C4 or TNT?
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info.publicintelligence.net
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info.publicintelligence.net
Did you know “AN expert” Vyto Babrauskas has gone agst this fairly universal opinion to argue that it was "a large uncontrolled fire [that] raged in the port of Beirut, heated up stored ammonium nitrate and caused the blast" on 4 Aug 2020?
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youtube.com
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youtube.com
Did you know Dr Babrauskas based this revisionist opinion on his 2015 historical analysis of 58 incidents (1920-2014) involving AN storage or transport facilities (excluding incidents involving ANFO or involvement of explosives other than AN)?
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sciencedirect.com
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sciencedirect.com
Did you know that Dr Babrauskas concluded “uncontrollable fire” in presence of stored AN explained 100% of the 17 AN explosions so the odd thing becomes why the other 41 uncontrollable fires (70% of total) did NOT cause explosion, a question he does not seem interested in?
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Did you know that for Dr Babrauskas “uncontrollable fire” is the necessary & sufficient cause for AN detonation, sufficient b/c “contamination” & “confinement” don’t matter as fire's “fuel” contaminates & a pool of molten AN or a large AN pile due to its weight "may" confine?
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Did you know that to "prove" his non-falsifiable "theory", Dr Babrauskas resorts to identifying historical precedents of AN explosions that he says were caused by "uncontrollable fire"? Thus to critique his "theory" requires historical analysis of EACH of his 17 "precedents"
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Did you know that if we simply focus on the FOUR "precedents" of exploding AN warehouses (19% of 21 AN warehouse fires 1920-2014) we start to find anomalies right away? Newspapers say AN did NOT explode in 1966? Only 5-10 tons exploded in 1973 leaving 14,000 tons UNTOUCHED?!
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Did you know that Dr Babrauskas believes 2013 West Fertilizer explosion is sufficient precedent for his 2020 Beirut theory, a mini-version of Beirut explosion involving reported 40-60 tons of AN stored in a warehouse that he feels perfectly fits "uncontrollable fire" theory?
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Did you know that "official" 2013 West Fertilizer report shows a lot of parallels to "official" 2020 Beirut story? But if to DISPROVE "official" West Fertilizer explanation cannot DISPROVE "official" Beirut explanation, how can proving 2013 prove 2020?
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csb.gov
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csb.gov
Did you know that if, for the sake of argument, we accept that the FBI's 552 tonnes or the "official" 2754 tonnes of NITROPRILL HD did explode in that warehouse in the port of Beirut on 4 Aug 2020, the "official" story of the Beirut explosion still has some MAJOR problems?
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Did you know that based on 2015 survey "high density fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate" (FGAN) - like NITROPRILL HD - has a TNT equivalency ranging from as low as 3% to as high as 15%? So how big an explosion would we expect from 552 or 2754 tonnes?
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researchgate.net
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researchgate.net
Did you know "explosive experts" compare the "size" of explosions by calculating how many pounds, tons, etc. of TNT it would take to produce the same explosive yield? They do this by multiplying the mass of the explosive by the explosive's TNT equivalent (aka RE factor).
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Did you know that when "explosive experts" say blast was 10 tons TNT equivalent they are referring to US ton (2000 lb)? Did you know that most Americans don't know that almost everywhere else in the world, when someone says "ton" or "tonne" they mean "metric ton" (~2200 lb)?
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Did you know that, after converting tonnes to US tons & multiplying by TNT equivalent (min 3%, max 15%), we calculate the FBI explosive yield of 18-91 tons TNT & "official" explosive yield of 91-455 tons TNT? "One of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history"? Hmm.
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Did you know on 4 Aug 2020 there were quite a few "experts" who believed the explosive yield was similarly on the order of "a few hundred tons", beginning with a "back of the envelope calculation" of ~240 tons tweeted by @GeorgeWHerbert that was popularized by @NarangVipin?
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Did you know on 4 Aug 2020 "nuclear expert" Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk solidified "a few hundred tons" idea by assuming "NITROPRILL HD" was Nitropril knock-off & using TNT equivalency from Nitropril Fact Sheet of 20% (for bags) to find upper limit of 550 tons?
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Did you know the "a few hundred tons" idea was reported approvingly by Axios (upper left), Washington Post (upper right), NPR (lower left) & Reuters (lower right).
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Did you know that, on 4 Aug 2020 & days after, the most popular idea was an explosive yield of 3 kilotons TNT equivalent, likely based more often than not on "rookie mistake" of unthinkingly assuming TNT equivalency for AN of 100%, thus 2750 tonnes AN would be ~3000 tons TNT?
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Did you know British "nuclear expert" Chris Busby told Sputnik News 2750 tonnes AN "roughly equal to the power of 2.7 kt of TNT" & since Hiroshima ONLY 10-12 kt(?) the Beirut blast was 1/4 as big as Hiroshima & in THIRD PLACE among "explosions that have rocked a city"?
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Did you know, based on the standard view that Hiroshima blast was actually 15 kt, the idea that this "rookie mistake" 3 kt Beirut blast was actually 1/5 of Hiroshima but now in THIRD PLACE in "World's Top 5 Most Powerful Explosions"(!) started taking off on Twitter?
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Did you know major news sources like the Sun, U.S. Sun, Daily Mail & Sean Hannity start repeating the #FifthOfHiroshima line but NEVER sourced and NEVER actually stating the Beirut explosion was 3 kt TNT equivalent?
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Did you know another popular intermediate approach was to calculate the 2020 Beirut explosive yield using TNT equivalent of 0.42 reported by Wikipedia who got that number from that US Army FM 3-34.214 that said successful AN detonation requires a booster charge of C4 or TNT?
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Did you know that's what @nytimes did (using uncited US Army source) although they assumed 2750 "tonnes" was the same as 2750 "tons" to come up with 1,155 tons TNT for 2020 Beirut explosive yield? Other "experts" did the same basic calculation to estimate about 1 kt blast.
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Did you know that on 7 Aug 2020, three days after the blast, Wikipedia lowered its listing for AN's TNT equivalence from 0.42 to 0.34 based on SAME 2015 survey that showed "high density fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate" (FGAN) has TNT equivalency ranging from 0.03 to 0.15?
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Did you know the intermediate idea got major support 5 Aug 2020 when Evening Standard reported Sheffield U paper calculated yield of 1000-1500 tonnes TNT [1100-1650 US tons] - 1/10 of Hiroshima & consistent w/2750 tonnes AN - based on video analysis of fireball & shock wave?
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Did you know that while "experts" diverged wildly on how big a blast destroyed half of Beirut, once the PM announced 2750 tonnes AN had been stored in the warehouse where the explosion took place, these "experts" unanimously had NO DOUBT that those 2750 tonnes were the cause?
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Did you know these "experts" were even more strongly united by their absolute faith there was NO PHYSICAL WAY nuclear devices played any role in 2020 Beirut blast? Within hours, "fact-checkers" citing these "experts" ruled the nuclear idea FAKE NEWS!
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Did you know while multitudes of people on social media remarked how Beirut was the closest the world had seen to what had happened in Hiroshima & Nagasaki, exceedingly few suggested Beirut had actually been nuked? There certainly was no public concern about radioactivity.
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Did you know former ESPN reporter Chris Palmer
@ChrisPalmerNBA was hit by a "troll" attack when after seeing a video of the "mushroom cloud" tweeted "There is no question that was an atomic bomb" & still gets trolled over it although he deleted the tweets almost right away?
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@ChrisPalmerNBA was hit by a "troll" attack when after seeing a video of the "mushroom cloud" tweeted "There is no question that was an atomic bomb" & still gets trolled over it although he deleted the tweets almost right away?
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Did you know Tyler Durden's offense at @zerohedge
was simply his titillating choice of title "Did A Nuke Just Go Off in Beirut?” b/c body of article says "The cause of the massive explosion is as yet unknown"? He promptly changed the offensive title & deleted offensive tweet!
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was simply his titillating choice of title "Did A Nuke Just Go Off in Beirut?” b/c body of article says "The cause of the massive explosion is as yet unknown"? He promptly changed the offensive title & deleted offensive tweet!
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Did you know that like @ChrisPalmerNBA after seeing this video of the Beirut explosion on 4 Aug 2020 I immediately thought the city was nuked & tweeted my reaction, adding some details from my research on other likely nuclear events in a short thread?
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Did you know, based on my experience on tweeting abt #911Truth & other historical controversies, I knew in my gut Beirut was going to be a taboo topic? Seeing how all the #SCAM celebs I had been following completely ignore Beirut only confirmed it.
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Did you know the arguments that "experts" were using to browbeat people into thinking anybody who thought Beirut may have been nuked was a crazy "conspiracy theorist" were unfortunately playing on widespread ignorance of how nuclear weapons worked?
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Did you know the approach of "experts" like Jeffrey Lewis was to say you are STUPID for questioning him, the "expert"? "This isn't that complicated, people. There is a fire & a secondary explosion. There are literally NONE of the phenomena one sees with a nuclear explosion."
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Did you know that each of the “fact checkers” in a classic “appeal to authority” fallacy reported the opinions of a COUPLE of “experts” with whom they had either been in direct communication and/or found on Twitter to make a sweeping conclusion about ALL “experts"?
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Did you know that the bulk of "fact-checkers" criticism - focused on claims Beirut was nuclear BECAUSE of "mushroom cloud" - was a "strawman fallacy" b/c “mushroom cloud” does NOT prove that Beirut explosion was NOT a nuclear event, as I discuss in more detail at my website?
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Did you know BTW of all Beirut "mushroom cloud" photos, I'll bet you've never seen this one tweeted 4 Aug 2020 (left) that shows impressive height the Beirut cloud reached & is the only photo I've seen that even compares to a ground-level view of Hiroshima cloud (right)? Hmm.
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Did you know some "experts" also argued Beirut couldn't be nuclear b/c a nuke would have had a “blinding white flash” although Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein admitted this was NOT true for "underground" nuclear detonations? So it could have been an underground nuke?
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Did you know some "experts" & "fact-checkers" suggested Beirut couldn't have been nuclear b/c "a nuclear explosion would be a lot more powerful and the cameraman would be gone" even though Business Insider mentioned @NuclearAnthro's tweet on nuclear 20-ton Davy Crockett?
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Did you know, most problematic for those who might think Beirut had been nuked, several “fact-checkers” mentioned lack of reports of radiation that would have been quickly detected? As already noted, despite Hiroshima comparisons NO ONE seemed concerned about radioactivity.
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Did you know that, contrary to what "fact-checkers" assert, just as it's POSSIBLE that an "underground nuke" and/or "small nuke" could've been used in Beirut, it's also POSSIBLE that a "clean nuke" like kind developed in US in 1970s could've been used? But more on that later!
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Did you know that, with a firm "fact-checker" taboo on any more hypothesizing about #BeirutNuked, there seems to have been an orchestrated effort to promote the idea that the Beirut blast was instead “the greatest NON-NUCLEAR explosion ever"?
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Did you know that this effort to promote Beirut as the greatest NON-NUCLEAR explosion ever did NOT, as one might expect, begin with those pushing Beirut as a 3 kt TNT explosion, FIFTH of Hiroshima & THIRD only to Hiroshima & Nagasaki?
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Did you know that, rather curiously, the idea of Beirut as the greatest NON-NUCLEAR explosion was initiated by "experts" who didn't really seem to care WHAT the actual explosive yield was, beginning with Richard Rabbat, "Sr. Director of Product, Platform
@Twitter"?
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@Twitter"?
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Did you know that on 5 Aug 2020 Prof Andy Tyas whose Sheffield U team had concluded Beirut blast was 1-1.5 kt told Evening Standard “WHATEVER the precise charge size, this is UNQUESTIONABLY one of the largest NON-NUCLEAR explosions in history”?
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Did you know this idea of Beirut as one of largest NON-NUCLEAR explosions was not a one-off but actually repeated ad nauseam in the days, weeks & months following the blast at a time when majority of the “expert” community divided btwn "a few hundred tons" and 1 kiloton?
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Did you know that if you had gone to the Wikipedia article on "Largest artificial non-nuclear explosions" on 4 Aug 2020 you would have found that the Beirut explosion even at 1 kt would not even have cracked the Top 10?
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web.archive.org
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web.archive.org
Did you know, indeed, explosions like 4-kt Minor Scale test & 3-kt 1917 Halifax & 1947 Texas City explosions are so much greater that it makes the idea of claiming a 1-kt explosion as "ONE of greatest non-nuclear explosions" rather questionable?
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Did you know NOBODY seemed to care about TOTAL DISCONNECT in "expert" & media claims like Reuters claim 14 Aug 2020 that Beirut blast "could be one of the STRONGEST non-nuclear explosions ever recorded" while reporting "experts" have estimated blast as ONLY 200-300 tons? Huh?
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Did you know by Sep 2020 the claim that the Beirut blast was one of the greatest NON-NUCLEAR blasts in history was simply taken for granted, at least to judge from @Wikipedia & the Twittersphere?
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Did you know 5 Oct 2020 Sheffield U team in their final report completely redid their video analysis of 2020 Beirut blast & radically lowered the explosive yield from original 1-1.5 kilotonnes TNT down to "best estimate" of .5 kt TNT w/"reasonable upper limit" of 1.12 kt TNT?
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Did you know despite cutting "best estimate" by over half to .5 kt, Sheffield U announced "one of the biggest non-nuclear blasts in history" - much as Prof Tyas had declared on 5 Aug 2020 for a 1-1.5 kilotonne blast - a claim that was widely reported around the world?
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Did you know by the end of 2020 the idea that Beirut was the greatest NON-NUCLEAR explosion has become a TRUISM that no longer requires any citation & gets repeated every time the August 2020 Beirut explosion comes up?
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Did you know even when in July 2021 Reuters reported the FBI report claimed only 552 tonnes AN had actually exploded on 4 Aug 2020, the paper automatically & unquestioningly added "The blast was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions ever recorded"?
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reuters.com
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reuters.com
Did you know that if we use the FBI's 552 tonnes AN, convert tonnes to tons, and multiply by the TNT equivalence for "NITROPRILL HD" ranging 3-15% (as already discussed), we're down to a minimum explosive yield of an amazing 18 tons TNT equivalent & max yield of only 90 tons?
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I assume you meant "If it was a nuke that building would NOT be standing"? Well, not necessarily. It depends on a host of factors.
Did you know that, although the "one of the largest NON-NUCLEAR blasts in history" idea had from DAY ONE been UNTENABLE & over time become even NONSENSICAL, over a score of blue-check news sources tweeted homage to that SPECIOUS truism on 1st anniversary of 2020 Beirut blast?
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Did you know what makes this "largest NON-NUCLEAR blast" TRUISM even more SPECIOUS is that the EXACT SAME truism had been used for 37 years(!) - indeed right up to August 2020 - to describe the October 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut?
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Did you know what makes the claim that 1983 Beirut Marine barracks blast was "the largest non-nuclear explosion ever" absolutely LUDICROUS was the official DoD Commission (aka Long Commission) report concluded the "gas-enhanced" truck bomb was ONLY 6-9 tons TNT equivalent?!
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Did you know if an explosion that was ONLY max 9 ton TNT equiv could in 1983 be declared "the largest non-nuclear explosion ever" and NEVER challenged for 37 years until unceremoniously USURPED & DISAPPEARED on 4 Aug 2020 that there is SOMETHING ROTTEN IN DENMARK?
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Did you know the LAST reference I found to the Oct 1983 US Marine barracks blast as "the largest non-nuclear explosion" was in Arab News on 29 Apr 2020 - a little over 3 months before the Aug 2020 Beirut blast?
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Did you know that what you have to understand about the phrase "the largest non-nuclear explosion ever" is that back in Dec 1983 it entered the lexicon completely POLITICIZED as part of the so-called WAR ON TERROR and it remains just as heavily politicized today?
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Did you know further "the largest non-nuclear explosion ever" is politicized in a way that makes it politically SACROSANCT so that NO ONE part of (what I call) the Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complex #MIMAC would dare question it no matter how LUDICROUS it might be?
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Did you know back in 1983 DoD had REAL "explosive experts" (not the FBI shills!) who had been studying explosions like the Marine barracks blast for decades & could have easily made mincemeat of the "official" story? But if they were ever consulted there is no record of it.
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Did you know if REAL "experts" had been allowed to HONESTLY study 1983 Marine barracks blast I believe they would have HAD to conclude that, far from being "the largest NON-NUCLEAR explosion ever", it was ACTUALLY "the smallest NUCLEAR explosion ever" akin to 10-ton #SADM?!
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Did you know that if you find yourself UNABLE to even IMAGINE US Marine barracks in Beirut MIGHT HAVE BEEN nuked back in October 1983, it just means that you have been truly psyoped by #WarOnTerror propaganda?
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Did you know part of #WarOnTerror propaganda campaign is keeping you as ignorant as possible about nuclear weapons, a campaign that actually started at the beginning of the #ColdWar when they didn't want you to know about radioactivity?
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smithsonianmag.com
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smithsonianmag.com
Did you know you can tell how effective this #WarOnTerror propaganda worked b/c on 4 Aug 2020 during orchestrated "Middle East Hiroshima" campaign, the propagandists could rely on the fact that people had ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what the bombing of Hiroshima looked like?
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Did you know on 75th anniversary of Hiroshima, this tweet & video clip - that depicts pretty closely what the 15-kt Little Boy nuke would have looked like detonating 1850 ft ABOVE Hiroshima - went viral? The Beirut blast LOOKED NOTHING like Hiroshima!
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Did you know propagandists were also totally uninterested in this fabulous color footage of what a surface burst of an ACTUAL 500 tons of TNT (Operation Sailor Hat) looked like even though looked AMAZINGLY LIKE 2020 Beirut blast? Why? Not powerful enough? TNT is not NH4NO3?
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Did you know the key to PROVING both 1983 Beirut & 2020 Beirut blasts were NUCLEAR is through analysis of the SIZE of the CRATER that each blast left behind? "Explosives experts" have long acknowledged cratering analysis is the gold standard for calculating explosive yield.
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Did you know, e.g., the FEMA report on 1995 OKC bombing calculated the "official" explosive yield of 4,000 pounds TNT based NOT on structural damage to Murrah Bldg, but dimensions of the CRATER that it says is the way yield is "usually inferred"?
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solargard.com
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solargard.com
Did you know in aftermath of 2020 Beirut blast once the massive size of the crater was revealed in numerous photos, some #MSM sources like Star Tribune (left) & Wired (right) acknowledged experts typically determine power of blast using "the size of the telltale crater"?
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Did you know the most useful tool I discovered for determining explosive yield based on crater dimensions for craters like those left by 1983 & 2020 Beirut blasts is Figure 4.3 “Scaled crater depth versus HOB (DOB) for large explosions in desert alluvium and similar media”?
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Did you know I found Fig 4.3 in a heavily redacted U. S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station report Operation Sun Beam, Shots Little Feller I and II: Crater Size and Shape (March 1965) & I don't think the censors knew how informative it was?
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Did you know it would take TOO MANY TWEETS to explain how to use Fig 4.3 so I've summarized the procedure (applied to the 2020 Beirut blast) in a chapter "The Telltale Crater & Nuclear Smoking Gun" on my website?
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drbairdonline.com
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drbairdonline.com
Did you know although the 1983 Beirut blast that killed 241 US military personnel was hardly "the largest non-nuclear explosion" it was certainly the most powerful "terrorist" explosive device as of that date which you can tell by these horrific descriptions from survivors?
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Did you know besides the tremendous blast, other evidence suggesting US Marine barracks had been nuked were numerous reports of a "mushroom cloud" over Beirut & statements like "Some things simply vaporized", some bodies never recovered & others "burned beyond recognition"?
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Did you know that using Fig 4.3 & rest of 1983 Beirut blast analysis from my Sep 2020 thread, I concluded NO WAY a truck bomb could have blasted this 8' 8" deep crater? The best explanation was a shallowly buried 10-ton TNT equivalent mini-nuke.
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Did you know if you've been properly propagandized you didn't know 10-ton nukes even existed or nukes could be detonated underground? But smallest nuke in US arsenal WAS 10-ton Special Atomic Demolition Munition #SADM designed to be detonated underground - to blast craters!
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Did you know also that if you thought that you could tell if a bomb was a nuke because of the BRIGHT WHITE FLASH, then you obviously didn't know burying the nuke not very far underground meant - voila! - no flash? Compare surface 1.2 kt nuke (l) & 1.2 kt nuke buried 17 ft (r)
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Did you know, at some point in this thread, if you are a normal person, even if you who have been only minimally propagandized after US govt acknowledged "fallout" might be problem in 1954, you have already asked “If it’s nuke, where’s the radioactivity?”
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Did you know "experts" who raise the "radioactivity" question ANYTIME somebody says an explosion even APPEARS nuclear do not want you know about the long history of US efforts to develop "clean" nukes going back to the 1950s discussed in this thread?
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Did you know, long story short, Lawrence Livermore #LLNL announced among "Highlights of Laboratory achievements during 1979" “A three-year development program has culminated in a new kind of tactical nuclear explosive, the reduced-residual-radioactivity (RRR) weapon"?
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Did you know LLNL reported "The fallout & rainout resulting from the surface burst of an #RRR explosive can be more than an order of magnitude less than that produced by an all-fission explosive of the same yield” & "thermal collateral damage" reduced "about a factor of two"?
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Did you know Apr 1978 Washington Post reported "a BLAST BOMB...is planned to explode ON or UNDER the ground, throwing enormous amounts of debris" & quoted govt nuclear weapons expert "This is the original idea of a 'CLEAN BOMB'...designed to create a minimum amt of fallout"?
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Did you know May 1978 AP reported US nuclear scientists "still years away from producing a “clean” tactical nuclear bomb but...have gone a long way toward mastering the key process which would result in total combustion of nuclear materials in an explosion"?
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Did you know May 1978 NYTimes wrote “The BLAST BOMB would be detonated at ground level...Its tactical mission on the battlefield might be to DIG HUGE CRATERS, DEMOLISH BUILDINGS or bury mtn passes under debris” but “MINIMIZE RESIDUAL RADIATION”?
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Did you know July 1978 Joseph Albright reported some US officials wanted to replace all ADMs w/"a new weapon" - the “reduced residual radiation earth penetrator" - "now in the R&D stage...intended to be dropped from an airplane or launched from a medium-range missile"?
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Did you know, while #WarOnTerror propaganda campaign has disappeared knowledge of #RRR weapons, physicist Heinz Pommer has pieced together this modified Teller-Ulam model showing how a 3rd-generation RRR nuke could have been designed to emit only strong directed X-rays?
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Did you know, as I concluded in my Sep 2020 thread, that ALL the nuclear states who developed the "neutron bomb" - US, USSR, Israel, France, China -were fully capable of developing a 3rd-generation RRR weapon & furthermore that they all did?
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Did you know if a shallowly buried 10-ton RRR nuke can explain what destroyed US Marine barracks & killed 241 US military personnel in Beirut in Oct 1983, an RRR nuke - albeit MUCH bigger AND deeper - could also explain what destroyed port of Beirut & killed 215 in Aug 2020?
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Did you know the "nuclear smoking gun" of the 2020 Beirut explosion is the enormous crater it blasted? So how big was this crater? Already by 5 Aug 2020 the general consensus was established that, using satellite imagery, the crater diameter was in the 120-150 meter range.
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Did you know on 9 Aug 2020 #MSM outlets all around the world published Agence France-Presse (AFP) report of a “Lebanese security official” citing assessments by “French experts on the scene” that the Beirut port blast crater was 43 meters (141 feet) deep?!
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Did you know using Fig 4.3 & procedure described earlier that the smallest RRR nuke that could have even blasted that 43-m deep crater would have been 5 kilotons & it would have to have been buried at a depth (DOB) of 40 meters?
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Did you know in order to explain the devastation in 2020 Beirut as well as crater the RRR nuke was likely much bigger & shallower than 5 kt @ DOB=40 m? It's also possible it could have been 10 kt @ 24 m. Or maybe even 15 kt @ 21 m in "honor" of 75th anniversary of Hiroshima!
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Did you know I even tweeted a joke suggesting @washingtonpost was on the run from my cratering analysis? Never heard back from them! The only other US #MSM outlet that picked up on WaPo lead was LATimes that actually told its readers to IGNORE "the 45-FOOT-deep crater"!
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Did you know in Sep 2020 there was a fledgling French attempt to downsize the crater depth from 43 meters to 4-6 meters deep?
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Did you know, for some reason, these attempts to downsize the 2020 Beirut crater failed as not even Wikipedia, who did NOT pick up on WaPo's 45-foot deep crater & adopted the French 4-6 m for only 5 days before reverting back to original 43 m depth?
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Did you know Oct 2020 Charles Aouad (PhD student in Astrophysics @ LJMU) et al posted claim this was hydrographic survey done by Lebanese Navy on 10 Aug 2020 & communicated to them privately, showing deepest pt below water 4 m? Paper totally ignored.
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researchgate.net
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researchgate.net
Did you know that 43-m depth is within the normal range of depth expected for crater diameter of 120-150 m? Available NTS data shows range of 3.2-5.3 for crater diameter-to-depth ratio, so we would expect 2020 Beirut crater depth to lie btwn min 22.6 m minimum to max 46.9 m.
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Did you know that analysis of explosive yield/depth of burst based on universally accepted & easily verifiable crater diameter of 120-150 meters confirms results based on 43-m crater depth that crater was blasted by underground 5+ kt RRR nuke?
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drbairdonline.com
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drbairdonline.com
Did you know the only kind of explosion that creates much larger diameter-to-depth ratios are explosions sufficiently ABOVE the surface so only compress the soil? But I guarantee you would have SEEN the nuke capable of creating a 4-m deep "compression crater"!
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Did you know the largest compression crater we have data for was the 21-kt Trinity blast (July 1945) detonated in a tower 100 ft above the surface that only created a 10-foot deep compression crater (that I have identified as pt 14 on extreme left in Fig 4.3)?
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Did you know #MIMAC didn't seem to think there was anything problematic about 43 m deep or 120-140 m wide crater? Indeed, even before the smoke had cleared on 4 Aug 2020, "intel" sources were tweeting photos of the crater as definitive PROOF of how ENORMOUS the blast was.
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Did you know indeed the CRATER would come to define #GroundZero that #BlueChecks in the first hours were playing up on 4 Aug 2020 much as #MSM had played up "Ground Zero" back on 9/11, all part of the same kind of script?
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Did you know in the first days after 2020 Beirut blast NO ONE suggested the crater could ONLY have been blasted by a nuke except @veteranstoday who put out so many easily refutable claims about "missiles" that anything they said could be readily dismissed as #disinfo?
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Did you know in 2020 Beirut blast aftermath the prevailing view on social media was a huge crater was actually what you would EXPECT from explosion of warehouse w/2750 tonnes AN? Tweeters cited many historical precedents of large craters left by smaller chemical explosions.
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Did you know, apart from @veteranstoday & their followers, the only people on social media in immediate aftermath asserting explosion MUCH GREATER than 2750 tonnes AN were "experts" pushing the idea that the warehouse was actually a Hezbollah weapons cache?
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Did you know although explosives experts had long claimed cratering analysis as the standard means to calculate explosive yield, only ONE "explosives expert" - Rachel Lance - actually engaged in cratering analysis in the days following the 2020 Beirut blast?
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Did you know sadly, in her 6 Aug 2020 Wired article "The Tragic Physics of the Deadly Explosion in Beirut", Lance used a type of cratering analysis that is quite popular but completely WRONG, analysis corrupted like so much else by the #WarOnTerror?
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wired.com
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wired.com
Did you know Lance's cratering analysis is restricted to one paragraph w/link to her source for how "charge size can be calculated scientifically" based on "the size of the telltale crater" - a google books preview of Kinney & Graham's Explosive Shocks in Air, 2nd ed (1985)?
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Did you know Lance was referring to K&G's single page on "Craters" that seems like rather little to devote to craters in 281-page book devoted to "explosive shocks in air" about which all they have to say is "they may not create any crater at all"?!
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Did you know what enamors quite a few modern "explosives experts" (not just Lance) in Kinney & Graham is that they came up with a simple equation for calculating how big an explosion had to occur to blast a crater like the one left after the famous 1921 Oppau disaster?
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Did you know K&G reported statistical study of "perhaps" 200 accidental large explosions "provides this equation [1-4]" applicable to "explosions ON THE SURFACE"
d = 0.8W^(1/3)
where crater diameter d (in metres) is a function of cube root of explosion yield W (in kg TNT)?
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d = 0.8W^(1/3)
where crater diameter d (in metres) is a function of cube root of explosion yield W (in kg TNT)?
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Did you know Lance in her Wired article, following general consensus that 2020 Beirut crater diameter fell btwn min 120 m & max 140 m used Eq 1-4 to calculate explosive yield [after converting kg to kt] min 1.9 kt [actually she miscalculated should be 3.7 kt] & max 5.9 kt?
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Did you know in response to MY thread concluding 2020 Beirut blast caused by underground 5+ kt RRR nuke, Rachel Lance @UnderwaterLance eloquently tweeted "I don’t feel obligated to spend all week dismantling every RANTED point by every RANTING conspiracy theorist"? Wow!
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Did you know for some reason I don't remember seeing this dismissive thread last year otherwise I'm sure I would have responded to it as I did most comments about my thread like this one from @LooseSid suggesting I read Lance's article then retract my "conspiracy BS"?
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Did you know when I finally responded on 17 Aug 2020 I took to task Equation 1-4 saying it was "a BULLSHIT EQUATION" b/c it totally ignores height of burst (HOB) - which surely would apply in a supposed ABOVEGROUND explosion like 2020 Beirut?
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Did you know, e.g., Nov 1951 #LANL conducted Jangle Sugar test supposed to be true SURFACE blast (Sugar mnemonic for "surface") but realized later NOT surface blast (i.e., HOB = 0) b/c Mk-6 nuke was sitting ATOP the NTS surface (NOT halfway buried) so actually HOB = +3.5 ft?
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Did you know that if that wasn't enough of a critique of K&G's Equation 1-4, I have recently discovered what I am almost certain is the elusive SOURCE for this BULLSHIT EQUATION that proves K&G's description is an OUTRIGHT LIE?!
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Did you know, in 1996, 11 years AFTER K&G’s 2nd ed came out, Paul W. Cooper published a book Explosives Engineering that included a chapter on “Scaling Craters” w/intriguing Figure 29.4 “Crater radius versus charge weight for a broad range of explosives types & weights”?
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Did you know, as Cooper explains, Fig 29.4 shows when you plot apparent crater radius (Ra) vs energy of explosion (E) for true SURFACE bursts (HOB=0), you find amazingly Ra varies proportionately w/cube root of E for charges varying from LESS THAN 1 g to OVER 10 megatons?!
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Did you know that if you turn Fig 29.4 into an equation you get Ra = E^(1/3), with Ra in feet & E in lbs TNT equiv. If you convert this equation to meters & kg TNT equiv & radius into diameter, you get - SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE! - the famous EQUATION 1-4?!
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Did you know, since Kinney & Graham's BULLSHIT interpretation of Equation 1-4 made ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE and Cooper's interpretation makes COMPLETE SENSE, I have no doubt that Cooper's is the CORRECT interpretation of this data that I am certain is the basis for Equation 1-4?
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Did you know thus K&G LIED when they said Eq 1-4 based on "PERHAPS [didn’t they know for sure?] two hundred [Fig 29.4 looks < 40] ACCIDENTAL [hardly!] large explosions [maybe HALF “large”]"? Most importantly these explosions are NOTHING like 1921 Oppau let alone 2020 Beirut!
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![Did you know thus K&G LIED when they said Eq 1-4 based on "PERHAPS [didn’t they know for sure?]...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9oN6V_VgAI2kCO.png)
Did you know curiously neither Cooper nor K&G acknowledged WHO gathered the data & did the statistical study, let alone details on the explosions? I tend to think the original analysis came from a classified report (that I have yet to find) that was made available to both.
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Did you know you are probably asking yourself so HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE COULD IT REALLY MAKE if the Mk-6 nuke was ATOP the NTS surface (HOB = +3.5 ft) or the bags of Nitroprill HD were ATOP the warehouse floor rather than half buried (HOB=0)? Short answer: A HUGE DIFFERENCE!
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Did you know, e.g., Fig 4.8 for 1-ton TNT spheres (r ~ 1.7 ft) shows as you move left from HOB = 0 to HOB = 2 feet, the apparent crater radius drops dramatically from 13 feet to near 5 feet while the crater depth drops from 5 feet to near 1 feet.
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Did you know Fig 4.8 for HOB > 2 ft shows 1-ton TNT spheres do not even blast a "conventional crater"; rather they produce a “compression crater”? As HOB increases beyond 2 ft, typical of compression craters, crater radius increases dramatically but depth hardly changes.
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Did you know Fig 4.13 shows same pattern can be found for 1-kt charges in desert alluvium where apparent crater radius drops rapidly from 73 feet @ HOB = 0 down to 33 feet @ HOB = 10 feet and the apparent crater depth from 31 feet down to 7.8 feet?
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Did you know Paul Cooper in Explosives Engineering states quite forcefully Fig 29.4 (and thus Equation 1-4) applies ONLY to "Surface Bursts" (HOB=0), NOT to "Above-Surface Bursts" (HOB > 0) EVEN WHEN the explosive device is still in physical contact with the surface?
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Did you know Cooper’s Figure 29.7 shows, as HOB increases, the energy coupled to the ground drops quickly described by function
E(%) = 33.3 e-1.46HOB
where HOB is measured in "charge radii" (i.e., assuming spherical charge divide HOB by charge radius using same units)?
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E(%) = 33.3 e-1.46HOB
where HOB is measured in "charge radii" (i.e., assuming spherical charge divide HOB by charge radius using same units)?
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Did you know, just to make sure you know how to use Figure 29.7, Cooper provides Example 29.2 showing that a drum of picric acid sitting on top of a 30-in tall table when detonated would create a crater of radius only .65 feet & depth 4 inches?
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Did you know, following Example 29.2, it should also be possible to calculate how big a crater the detonation of 2750 tonnes of Nitroprill HD stacked on the floor of a warehouse in the port of Beirut would have created?
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Did you know to calculate expected crater radius for 2020 Beirut burst, we need to solve Eq. 29-7 for above-ground bursts? Although scary looking, it is actually not hard to solve as Cooper walks you through each step. The attachments show how each parameter is calculated.
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Did you know rather than imagining 2750 1-tonne bags of Nitroprill HD as SINGLE explosive device, for cratering purposes more accurate to describe the charge geometry in these images as 1375 explosive devices, each one a 2-tonne cylinder ~ 3 ft diameter by 6-ft tall?
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Did you know detonation of 1375 2-tonne stacks of Nitroprill HD resting ATOP surface of NTS alluvium would create 1375 craters ~4.8 ft in diameter by ~1.2 ft deep w/overlapping craters tending to “smooth” out bottom of crater ~12,300 sq ft in area (111 ft x 111 ft)?
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Did you know the crater calculated using theoretical approach of Paul Cooper's Explosives Engineering - which if circular would be .4 m deep by 38 m diameter - is obviously NOTHING like 43 m deep by 120-140 m diameter 2020 Beirut crater actually measured?!
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Did you know, if instead of 1375 cylinders, we imagined ALL 2750 tonnes could be made to explode as SINGLE spherical explosive device sitting ATOP the surface, we would have a charge 9 m radius that would blast crater 20 m wide by 5 m deep, 2x dimensions of 1995 OKC crater?
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Did you know 20 m wide x 5 m deep crater formed by hypothetical SINGLE bomb sitting ATOP surface still FAR CRY from 2020 Beirut crater but actually quite similar to results of 1.2-kt TNT equiv Jangle Sugar sitting ATOP NTS alluvium that blasted 27 m wide x 5 m deep crater?!
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Did you know, Fig 4.3 shows 5 m deep crater is what you would expect from ANY (not just nuclear) 1.2 kt TNT eq explosion (almost identical to 1,155 tons NYTimes reported for 2020 Beirut blast) on alluvium & similar media at HOB = +3.5 ft as shown by Point 11 (Jangle Sugar)?
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