[THREAD ON TALIBAN & PAKISTAN]
I’m seeing a lot of people pinning their hopes on Pakistan to convince the Afghan Taliban to make fundamental concessions during the peace process.
It seems highly unlikely that Pakistan will be able to convince the Taliban…
1/n
I’m seeing a lot of people pinning their hopes on Pakistan to convince the Afghan Taliban to make fundamental concessions during the peace process.
It seems highly unlikely that Pakistan will be able to convince the Taliban…
1/n
…to make major strategic concessions.
Many think that Pakistan can pressure the Taliban leadership in Pakistan to offer major concessions (such as a comprehensive ceasefire or joining a participatory government) or that they can influence core strategic decisions.
2/n
Many think that Pakistan can pressure the Taliban leadership in Pakistan to offer major concessions (such as a comprehensive ceasefire or joining a participatory government) or that they can influence core strategic decisions.
2/n
It is debatable if Pakistan has that type of influence. Even if it does, it remains open whether Pakistan will be willing to used strong-arm tactics against the movement. Most likely, it will continue to urge the leadership but fall short of adopting strong-arm tactics.
3/n
3/n
Looking at the past 10 years, Pakistan has never taken any steps vis-à-vis the Taliban, that can be interpreted as forcing the Taliban to take strategic decisions that it would not otherwise have taken.
4/n
4/n
The fact that the Afghan government leadership keeps publicly berating Pakistan, many within the Pakistan establishment would see this as a sign of fickle policy making which doesn’t warrant permanently cutting ties with the Taliban.
5/n
5/n
Realistically speaking, Pakistan sees the Taliban as the only political entity that is willing and prepared to protect core Pakistani interests and counter prevalent Indian influence in Afghanistan.
6/n
6/n
Currently, it does not see any alternative actor that will fulfil this role. Given this, it is doubtful Pakistan will be willing to completely alienate the Taliban.
7/n
7/n
In other words, while Pakistan may be able to convince the Taliban to accept a RiV and stayed engaged in the political process, it will fall short of ensuring a comprehensive ceasefire or expedient political process.
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