Acquiring a deadline extension from the Taliban will be very difficult. If Biden administration unilaterally extends the deadline for troops departure, it will erode the already half built trust amongst the US and Taliban.
[Thread] 1/n
[Thread] 1/n
Attracting the Taliban back to the table will be very hard, and why would they? They have more regional support now than ever and militarily speaking, after the Doha agreement, they are at their best morale they’ve ever been.
2/n
2/n
One should note Taliban’s deputy leader, Serajudeen Haqqani’s recent speech, where he says, “This time if the Mujahideen resume fighting the enemies, it would be something they have never seen before. They will wish the battlefield was like in the past.”
3/n
3/n
This all indicates that they are prepared to fight for as long as they can, and we have seen that they can fight for decades. The US should not get dragged into an endless war and neither should it prolong the suffering of the poor Afghan nation with this endless war.
4/n
4/n
The withdrawal will certainly bring more violence and possibly could result in the collapse of the current order. But if the US stays past deadline, it could not change the ground reality and will only delay the predicted violence & possible collapse...
5/n
5/n
... of the government for a certain time, till the US decides to leave Afghanistan.
This violence and collapse of the current order is postponable, but not preventable. To achieve a comprehensive settlement, we have to understand/evaluate the actual...
6/n
This violence and collapse of the current order is postponable, but not preventable. To achieve a comprehensive settlement, we have to understand/evaluate the actual...
6/n
... strength of all Afghan warring sides. Once the actual strength is recognised, then in accordance to their military strength, a power sharing formula could work.
7/n
7/n
The best option for US is to withdrawal, with the withdrawal the US would have gained enough trust amongst Taliban ranks. This trust, other incentives & regional political leverage could be used to influence the Taliban during the upcoming civil war.
8/n
8/n
At the mean time, it could support Kabul financially for a few years until the warring sides reach a settlement. US has the potential to influence TB, it should use it. Simply departing & abandoning Afghans will also have terrible repercussions.
[END] 9/n
[END] 9/n
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