Yes, the delay could prevent a ‘catastrophe’ for now, but keeping forces will create further resistance & more complications for the region, as we have seen.
[THREAD]
1/n
nbcnews.com
[THREAD]
1/n
nbcnews.com
Once the current agreement is breached, by keeping forces beyond the deadline, the Taliban will reject any notion of political dialogue in the future.
The already sceptical Taliban will not trust the US anymore. It will make them more resilient & obstinate, it will…
2/n
The already sceptical Taliban will not trust the US anymore. It will make them more resilient & obstinate, it will…
2/n
…make it difficult for the Taliban leadership to persuade its ranks in regards to re-engagement in political dialogue with the US.
Recently Taliban frontman, @suhailshaheen1 tweeted; “Military approach in Afghanistan has not worked. The past 20 years speak well for this”.
3/n
Recently Taliban frontman, @suhailshaheen1 tweeted; “Military approach in Afghanistan has not worked. The past 20 years speak well for this”.
3/n
Here Mr. Shaheen is clearly implying that ‘military approach’ by foreigners won’t work. It didn’t work for the past nor will it work in the future.
What petrifies the International community is, when they realise that there will be further escalation in bloodshed…
4/n
What petrifies the International community is, when they realise that there will be further escalation in bloodshed…
4/n
…& violence, once the foreign forces leave. Yet, this was expected and predictable.
Unfortunately, this war between the Afghans is unpreventable. The reason is, for the past 20 years Taliban & Afghan government have not encountered each other without the support…
5/n
Unfortunately, this war between the Afghans is unpreventable. The reason is, for the past 20 years Taliban & Afghan government have not encountered each other without the support…
5/n
…from foreign forces. Because of major fundamental differences between the two parties, only the weaker will have to make these concessions.
At this stage, the obvious weaker party is the Afghan gov’t. But even Kabul seems reluctant to make major concessions because…
6/n
At this stage, the obvious weaker party is the Afghan gov’t. But even Kabul seems reluctant to make major concessions because…
6/n
… it anticipates, that the US will not abandon them. Or to make concessions they will have to see the real strength of Taliban, so far, it’s only assumptions.
The US should stop wasting time on unfeasible plans. It should implement the current agreement to build trust.
7/n
The US should stop wasting time on unfeasible plans. It should implement the current agreement to build trust.
7/n
Stay diplomatically engage no matter what happens in the ground. It should use its standing & status to manage the upcoming war.
Both Taliban & Kabul know they will need the US, them both will seek American goodwill & collaboration.
8/n
Both Taliban & Kabul know they will need the US, them both will seek American goodwill & collaboration.
8/n
In return, the US should ask the Afghans to stay engaged in talks no matter what hat happens on the ground. No party should walk away from the table.
9/9
[END]
9/9
[END]
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