While everyone is impatiently waiting for Biden administration to present its future policy for Afghanistan. For now, we have to comprehend the reality, that the upcoming future of Afghanistan will be marred with intense violence.
1/n

Expecting this long bloody war to end with a political settlement seems like a fantasy. Neither the Taliban nor the Afghan government wanted to sit behind the table and talk to each other because both parties have not yet “exhausted its military options”.
They both were...
2/n

... pressurised by the US to sit with each other and talk.
There is so much fundamental difference between TBN & KBL, without one-side conceding, a settlement seems unfeasible. We know the TB are at their best moral politically and militarily, one doubts they will concede.
3/n

Both parties are not prepared for major concessions because they still have to see how much military power the other side has (without US interference). For TB to make concessions, they will have to see how long KBL can withhold its gains, after the US withdraws it’s forces.
4/n

It’s painful to say this, but if the US leaves, we might see an unpreventable, a critical and a decisive battle over power in Afghanistan. If the US doesn’t leave, the same bloody war will continue for decades.
5/n