One can’t disagree with Steve Coll. Biden will be inheriting a very complicated and vague situation in Afghanistan.
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[THREAD]
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[THREAD]
I don’t understand why most experts feel betrayed by the Taliban in regards to its intention of peacefully achieving a new political roadmap for Afghanistan.
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I haven’t seen anything where the Taliban have said that they will, “keep the gains of the past 20 years”, or that they will respect and adhere to the current democratic system of Afghanistan.
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If we go back to Talibans statements, they’ve always maintained that their core reason for fighting is the presence of foreign forces. In fact, it is the presence of foreign forces which is fuelling this “unending war”.
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But the problem with leaving everything behind & withdrawing all forces by May, will give the Taliban the privilege and free pass to coerce and intimidate Afghan politicians and Kabul.
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If one observes Talibans deeds in regards to Intra Afghan talks, the Taliban were very hesitant to talk to Kabul government. It took many years of hard negotiations for Americans to persuade the Taliban to talk to Kabul government.
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The Taliban agreed to talk to Kabul but they’ve always maintained that they want an new and an “inclusive” government. Nothing about accepting the current order or the ‘gains of past 20 years’.
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After tense negotiations with US counterparts, the Taliban agreed to talk to Kabul government but it was only because they were coerced into doing it (US agreed to withdrawal its forces, if Taliban talks with Kabul).
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The withdrawal of foreign forces was their ultimate prize, on the other hand, talking to Kabul was one of their ultimate sacrifices.
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One has to note that the Taliban has so far rejected any notion of foreign interference in intra Afghan talks. They’ve always expressed that the next political roadmap has to be decided by Afghans only.
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With that, Taliban foresee themselves as the most powerful faction and naturally the decisions makers of Afghanistan.
If Biden decides to delay the withdrawal, without the consent of Taliban, then this will be a major setback to finding a negotiated settlement in AFG.
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If Biden decides to delay the withdrawal, without the consent of Taliban, then this will be a major setback to finding a negotiated settlement in AFG.
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Taliban’s primary demand will be rejected, this will be the utmost breach of the agreement. This could shatter the chances of any other future settlements or agreements with the Biden is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he stays, the US will have to comeback...
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...to the same juncture, be it in 6 months or 6 years. No one is sure, if the ground reality will change by then. If he leaves now, the chances are that the Taliban will March on Kabul and a bloody civil war will take place.
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If foreign forces leave Afghanistan in time (by deadline), this will give a very positive impression to the Taliban. With this agreement implemented, the US and Taliban will have gained a lot of trust on each other. This trust building measures are required to...
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Once both parties begin to trust each other, they can easily resolve their problems. We have seen that both parties cannot coerced each other. They both have to try to accept & work with each other. I think the Taliban have accepted this harsh reality and so should the US.
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Biden should try to have his own Biden-Taliban agreement, possibly a US-Taliban agreement 2.0, where he will have to resolve the unresolved issues.
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