Here's a short list of things we do and don't yet know about #COVID19.
1. We don't yet know the true case fatality rate. (E.g.: if you catch it, how likely are you to die?)
Scientists agree that the CDC's #s are likely underestimates; but it's AT LEAST 4x more deadly than the flu, if infected; & will infect far more ppl.
jamanetwork.com
Scientists agree that the CDC's #s are likely underestimates; but it's AT LEAST 4x more deadly than the flu, if infected; & will infect far more ppl.
jamanetwork.com
2. We don't yet know *exactly* how it's transmitted. Definitely by droplets. But maybe aerosols? Maybe fomites?
----> For now: best practice in the non-healthcare setting is mask, distance, and hand-washing
cdc.gov
----> For now: best practice in the non-healthcare setting is mask, distance, and hand-washing
cdc.gov
3. We don't fully understand why & how it causes a wide variety of clinical syndromes. For example, although we have growing clinical knowledge, the new multi-inflammatory syndrome observed in kids is very much a black box.
nejm.org
nejm.org
4. Relatedly, we don't know what works to treat #COVID19.
Remdesivir may decrease hospitalizations.
Proning may decrease intubations.
Hydroxycholoroquine WORSENS outcomes.
Plasma from recovered pts: Maybe.
That's all we've got, folks. Still waiting on 100s of ongoing trials.
Remdesivir may decrease hospitalizations.
Proning may decrease intubations.
Hydroxycholoroquine WORSENS outcomes.
Plasma from recovered pts: Maybe.
That's all we've got, folks. Still waiting on 100s of ongoing trials.
5. We are not totally sure about the efficacy of those home-made masks.
We know that masks work, period. But what kind of fabric masks work, for whom, at what distance? Still TBD.
(Wear them! But don't feel immune.)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
We know that masks work, period. But what kind of fabric masks work, for whom, at what distance? Still TBD.
(Wear them! But don't feel immune.)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
6. We don't yet know how long immunity lasts. Once you get it once, will you be immune for a month? A year? A lifetime? Will this be like the common cold, or like smallpox? We're hoping for the latter.
jamanetwork.com
jamanetwork.com
7. We don't know how long people are infectious.
8. And we of course don't yet know when/whether we'll have a safe and effective vaccine.
(But PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD once we have one, GET VACCINATED!)
scientificamerican.com
(But PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD once we have one, GET VACCINATED!)
scientificamerican.com
OK, now for a short list of things we DO know:
2. We know that to decrease transmission & deaths, we need a a combo of (a) Social distancing (b) Testing (c) Isolation & Contact Tracing of Sick People (d) Adequate PPE.
cidrap.umn.edu
cidrap.umn.edu
2. And if we can increase (b), (c), and (d) .... then (a) #SocialDistancing is not so necessary.
WITHOUT these standard #publichealth measures, we'll see new hot-spots emerge, watch infections & deaths balloon, & will be right back where we were in mid-March in the US.
WITHOUT these standard #publichealth measures, we'll see new hot-spots emerge, watch infections & deaths balloon, & will be right back where we were in mid-March in the US.
3. We also know that if you're close to someone who's infected, inside, for a period of time, you too have a high risk of infection.
And... 1 selfish person, who goes out & about when ill, can get a lot of other people really sick :(
And... 1 selfish person, who goes out & about when ill, can get a lot of other people really sick :(
4. Lastly, we know that underlying social & economic inequalities worsen disease.
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
(....that's essentially it, folks. That's what we KNOW about the virus, its transmission, and its prevention.)
So where does that leave us?
1) Keep doing & funding science.
2) Insist that state & federal gov'ts increase testing so you can go back to work
3) Fund #Publichealth infrastructure
4) Until then... maintain masks & social distancing to keep yourself *and your community* safe
1) Keep doing & funding science.
2) Insist that state & federal gov'ts increase testing so you can go back to work
3) Fund #Publichealth infrastructure
4) Until then... maintain masks & social distancing to keep yourself *and your community* safe
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