Jason Furman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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Median PCE inflation rose 0.7% in August--which is an 8.2% annual rate or 6.9% ar for the last three months. These are considerably higher than core inflation. Median PCE drops ou...
Over the last year core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) was 4.9%. Absent the Russian invasion of Ukraine it would have been about 4.9%. One useful gut check on this was...
Some real increase in personal consumption expenditures in August (+1.2% annual rate), undoing the August decline. Overall personal spending levels remain strong. Note PCE decline...
After a hiatus in July core PCE inflation snapped back to its third highest monthly value of this inflationary episode in August--0.6% or a 7.0% annual rate. Always better to smoo...
Today the BEA revised the last five years of GDP data. The revisions (fortunately) reduce some of the annoying discrepancies in the data but don't change the overall picture much....
Just checked the 10yr/10yr Treasury rate (ie, the markets forecast of the 10yr rate a decade from now). Is 4.33%. That is up 19bp in a day (largest 1 day increase in over a year)...
An updated and expanded breakdown of the supply and demand components of inflation from the @sffed's @adamshap5. His analysis is consistent with much of the excess *overall* inflat...
This type of standard distributional analysis always misses half of the impact on the policy. It shows the *direct* impact. The *indirect* impact is usually equal in magnitude (and...
How to think about what the Fed should and will do (which I expect are largely the same)? My modal expectation is that the FFR will peak at 5.25% (bottom of the range) in 2023 but...
The FOMC's median forecast for the unemployment rate likely would trigger the @Claudia_Sahm rule which has been a perfect recession predictor (a 0.5pp increase in the three month m...
The decline in the imputed price for "Portfolio management and investment advice services" in July subtracted 1.3pp (annual rate) from PCE inflation in July (a mechanical function...
The FOMC raised rates by 75bp to 3-3.25%. This was expected. Markets seem surprised by the dots--they show rates rising to 4.4% at the end of 2022 and 4.6% at the end of 2023. Goo...