Jason Furman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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Whoa. CME-estimated market odds of a 100bp hike at the next meeting have risen from 0.0% a week ago to 42.8% now. I would still recommend sticking to 75bp (although 100bp would be...
The 12-month core CPI fell from 6.0% in the year through May to 5.9% in the year through June. But don't get too excited--this is probably not telling you what you think it is. Al...
Another brutal CPI report. Headline CPI was 1.3% (17.1% annual rate). But that's outdated given recent gasoline declines. What was brutal was core CPI rose to 0.7% (8.8% annual r...
I've been emphasizing the slowdown in private average hourly earnings as a reason I've lowered my outlook for inflation. Some have pointed out there is less of a slowdown in growth...
An "inverse policy rule" is a useful gut check on monetary policy. Policy rules show what interest rates should be given inflation & unemployment (or output) if policymakers foll...
What is going on with inflation? The price and wage data are telling two very different stories. As someone who believes that ultimately prices and wages are linked I view that as...
Headline jobs number was 372,000 in June based on employer survey. But a survey of households showed 315,000 fewer people employed in June. How should a Bayesian combine these da...
Willie Powell & my blog on the latest jobs data. The labor market is strong evidence that the economy was not in recession in the first half of 2022 & suggests inflation may be mod...
In the last two quarters: GDP: -1% (assuming GDP Now is correct, a big assumption) Employment: +2% We have never seen a disconnect like that before in the data (available since...
The labor market data say it was very unlikely the economy was in recession in the first half of 2022. The @Claudia_Sahm Rule is not signaling recession. https://t.co/70vRjrUwXF
If all you had access to was the labor market data you would be talking about an economy with strong growth and falling inflation. The economy added 372K jobs in June, unemploymen...
The @business_econ talk I just gave on "Supply and/or Demand?" I went through four problems (or fallacies) in disentangling supply from demand in the current context which I summar...