Jurrien Timmer
Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
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My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a cyclical bull market, and that the 1966-68 analog is a possible guide for where we are in the soft landing recovery. In terms of the...
If the secular regime has transitioned from the Great Moderation of the past few decades to one of fiscal dominance, perhaps the most seismic change to the investing paradigm that...
In all likelihood the bear market for equities started two years ago on January 4th, 2022, and at least the cap-weighted index is within spitting distance of its all-time high. Tha...
Two years ago was a tough time to start investing. Back in 2021 the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was 29x and the “P/E” (inverse of yield) on the 10-year Treasury note was 300x “based...
Big growers are pushing the S&P 500 higher (and giving the illusion of the all-clear), but the smallest of the small caps are making new lows. Check out the Russell Microcap index...
My last thread asked: Did the market find bottom last October, even though earnings are only now beginning to decelerate? Here's a closer look at similar periods in history. 🧵 http...
Did the market find bottom last October, even though earnings are only now beginning to decelerate? Let's see what history can tell us. 🧵 https://t.co/t25uygiOpg
Let’s look at a few notable bear markets and see how they compare to today's market. First up, the Great Recession (2007-09): 🧵 https://t.co/ZE49svcPIw
Where are we in the market-cycle timeline, and what does that suggest for the months ahead? 🧵 https://t.co/z8TqdRL0ID
Investors who are betting on a soft landing narrative should keep an eye on the yield curve, which last week inverted to new lows for this cycle. 🧵 https://t.co/xGhSmgfmWw
It's the middle of summer, but for crypto, it's winter. Bitcoin and crypto in general have not been spared from the widespread drawdowns this year, and that’s an understatement. So...
Bear markets and recessions happen during all secular regimes, but during secular bull markets they tend to be shorter and are quicker to recover. 🧵 https://t.co/rS6XLVZIUY