The Kobeissi Letter
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: support@thekobeissiletter.com
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Stock markets around the world are crashing right now, but why? The answer to this question is the Yen carry trade, a term you'll probably hear many times this week. So what exac...
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is now officially in bear market territory, down 20% from its all time high seen just one month ago. The stock has erased a whopping $400 BILLION in marke...
BREAKING: Nearly 30% of all stocks in China have been halted as China's CSI 1000 index slides 8% in a matter of hours. Chinese stock market indices today: 1. CSI 1000: -8% 2. Sta...
"Fed pivot" is an understatement: Markets are now pricing-in an 86% chance that rate cuts will begin in March 2024. The base case now shows SEVEN interest rate cuts in 2024. 3 w...
The million dollar question: Will the "Fed pivot" that we got last week trigger a 1970s style return of inflation? It seems that risks of another spike in inflation are risking,...
This is incredible: Just about every time the Fed started CUTTING rates dating back to 1950, the unemployment rate has spiked. Historically speaking, the first cut comes 3 months...
BREAKING: Interest rate futures now show a 100% chance of no rate hikes OR cuts in December or January. Prior to this week, odds of another rate hike were nearing 40%. Meanwhile,...
Today, at 1 PM ET the entire stock market turned lower. What happened? The 30-year bond auction drew 4.77% which was above the presale numbers by ~5 bps. In other words, the auc...
While CPI inflation is at 3.7%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 18.9% 2. Car Repair Inflation: 10.2% 3. Transportation Inflation: 9...
China Over The Last 3 Months: 1. Unexpectedly cut rates by most since 2020 2. Removed 50% of their stock trade tax for the first time since 2008 3. Considered making it illegal...
BREAKING: The US government is now just 48 hours away from a shutdown. This comes less than 3 months after the largest debt ceiling crisis since 2011. Meanwhile, the government i...
The U.S. Now Has: 1. Record $17.1 trillion in household debt 2. Record $12.0 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.6 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $1.6 trillion in student loan...